War’s Not Over!

What happens next?
The options for the Israeli government are limited but familiar. Israel has confronted similar crises before, following a standard playbook of a brutal assault that involves mobilizing the army, launching airstrikes, incapacitating Hamas leadership, and potentially invading Gaza, if necessary. However, these actions come with significant challenges.

Fighting in densely populated areas risks international condemnation for civilian casualties, shifting blame onto Israel and the United States. Furthermore, a successful full-scale invasion raises questions about how and when to withdraw, a dilemma Israel grappled with after its 2005 Gaza withdrawal.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, known for his prudent approach to full-scale conflicts, is likely to initially opt for airpower to coerce Hamas into a ceasefire and negotiations for hostage release, effectively returning to the status quo. If this approach fails, more drastic measures may be considered.

Hamas appears unwilling to settle for a return to the status quo ante, potentially seeking further escalation, including a West Bank uprising, Hezbollah retaliation, and revolt in Jerusalem. This would challenge Israel, as Hamas is unlikely to cooperate with any Israeli proposal to restore the previous status quo.

The current crisis will inevitably draw regional players, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the nations that signed the Abraham Accords with Israel. They will seek to de-escalate the situation, as prolonged conflict threatens their newfound relationships with Israel.

While domestic political instability in Israel may complicate decision-making, the magnitude of chaos transcends domestic politics. It was evident in Netanyahu’s immediate huddle-formation by inviting the opposition in the Knesset to form a unity government. Nonetheless, Netanyahu must find a way to lead effectively, potentially forming a narrow emergency government to sideline right-wing extremists and demonstrate responsibility and restraint.

This crisis’ timing is eerily significant, occurring almost precisely five decades after the 1973 Yom Kippur War when Arab forces surprised Israel. It is no coincidence; it serves as a poignant reminder of the enduring significance of that historic conflict. Hamas’s ability to echo the early victories of 1973, celebrated in the Arab world, now poses a challenge to nations that have made peace with Israel over the past half-century. Unlike in 1973, when Egypt’s Anwar Sadat went to war to make peace with Israel, Hamas aimed to weaken or dismantle it.

This attack highlights the consequence of hubris, as Israel, in both 1973 and recent years, believed it was invincible, dismissing the Palestinian right to live and exist. It is now confronted with the stark reality that military force alone cannot address the underlying issues and that diplomacy and a deeper understanding of historical context are imperative. While one still doesn’t expect Israel to mend its errant ways, one may truly hope that at least the Arab nations treading toward normalization with the Zionist regime would comprehend the fact that has hovered over the region for decades: There can be no sustainable peace or normalization without first achieving (and cementing) the Two-State Solution. All the diplomacy devoid of the Palestinian cause is ultimately a ruse, mere wishful thinking!

Who is Responsible for the Collective Bloodshed?

The last two weeks have been some of the deadliest in Israel’s incendiary history of existence. As of October 21st, more than 1400 Israelis have perished after Hamas’ unprecedented onslaught on Southern Israel. The broader world is busy debating the prospect of retribution vs restraint. (Ironically, some of those standing for resolve are also sending military supplies and anchoring aircraft carriers to Israel). There is a litany of soft power posturing in the Arab world to deter Israel from decimating Gaza into a mound of revenge rubble. But woefully, hardly anyone is questioning (or at the very least reasoning) a fundamental notion: Why is this chaos actually happening?

I admit that my premise may not sound entirely on point at face value. And if you have been spending considerable time reading quality analysis on this simmering crisis, I’m positive you might outright disagree. But hear me out. It is true that the world is contesting what really is the inception point of the ongoing catastrophe. The Western narrative, frankly quite unsurprisingly, is parochial at best and racially prejudiced at worst. Led by none other than the apparent ‘custodian of global justice,’ the United States, their predominant rhetoric is set in an age-old phrase: “Israel’s right to defend itself.”

As much as I want to shred this absurd idea into pieces, for the sake of brevity of this write-up, I would let my cogent readers derive the underlying hypocrisy based on facts - not distorted worldviews and pseudo-democratic ideals that somehow only apply to enemies like Russia and China but dissipate once geopolitical or ethnic allies are concerned. Anyway, let’s not be distracted.

The Western perspective, simplistically, holds Hamas’ massacre responsible for triggering a deserved response from Israel, which has resulted in a humanitarian nightmare in Gaza. Much of the Pro-Palestinian world, including the Arab countries, points out the decades of subjugation and atrocities faced by the Palestinians in Gaza. They are criticizing the West’s selective context of escalation that blatantly absolves Israel of its crimes against the civilians of Gaza, its illegal settlements expanding in the West Bank, and its utter disregard of all the relevant covenants of the UN Security Council.

So, while Western powers are overtly resistant to going beyond the October 7th threshold, the Pro-Palestinian approach stretches decades in history and generalizes the problem at hand. That is not quite what I envisioned when I proposed the question earlier. These mainstream narratives could be right, wrong, too broad, or too narrow. But these are not collective; they are not objective enough. Thus, to reach a universal answer, we need to shirk our inherent biases and ask ourselves, albeit rephrasing the question into two parts: What specifically led Hamas to triumph in Israel? And why is Israel so belligerent?
This brings us to a nexus that no one could possibly avoid or deny: The attack was a strategic failure of Israel at large and Netanyahu in particular. How exactly? Well, even the Israelis would agree that Netanyahu - alongside his “most rightwing coalition ever” - led Israeli citizenry into an illusion of righteousness and peace. Pretending that the question of a Palestinian state was buried under the diplomatic spree of the Abraham Accords, he warped the reality beyond the barricaded borders. He downplayed Palestinian frustration and agony.

Leaders of American Jewish far-left activist group IfNotNow, while expressing solidarity with innocent civilians, “Israelis and Palestinians alike,” insisted, “We cannot and will not say [these] actions by Palestinian militants are unprovoked.” In a following statement, they further wrote, “The strangling seize on Gaza is a provocation. Blood is on the hands of the Israeli government, the US government, which funds and excuses their recklessness, and every international leader who continues to turn a blind eye to decades of Palestinian oppression, endangering both Palestinians and Israelis.”

Ever since Hamas gripped power in the Gaza Strip in 2007, Netanyahu has enacted a devious playbook that pivots on a separation strategy: Let Hamas embolden and oust the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority (PA) from Gaza; debilitate the PA in the West Bank until there remains no viable negotiating figure on behalf of the Palestinians. Since Hamas is already deemed a terrorist organization by most of the Western countries and institutions, there could be no concept of answering to its hierarchy on any international juridical fora.

As an added bonus, the United States would (as historical precedent would have it) continue to veto any resolution and backlash that might impede Israel’s apartheid machinations. Ultimately, over the past 17 years, Netanyahu’s blueprint has been in full throttle, openly in action for the world to witness. Unabashed proliferation of illegal settlements in the West Bank, displacing indigent families from their own land, conducting indiscriminate raids, and perpetuating rabid killings under the facade of security operations. And then feigning innocence and lamenting the absence of any legitimate authority of the Palestinian people to work with.

“Over the years, he [Netanyahu] led a failed and misleading security concept. He preferred the status quo over in-depth political solutions - even transitional or interim - in the West Bank and Gaza,” said Gilead Sher, former Chief of Staff and Policy Coordinator to Israel’s former Prime Minister, Ehud Barak. “His policy attempted to topple the Palestinian Authority and strengthen Hamas while fostering Hamas’ sense of impunity and capability,” he concluded.

The war is intensifying, and the world is openly denouncing his inhumane blockade of Gaza. Courtesy of his two-pronged gambit to deprive Palestinians of representation, now there is no recognized authority to negotiate the release of over 200 Israeli hostages taken into Gaza by Hamas militants. And with over 3,500 Palestinians and at least 1400 Israelis dead, hospitals decimated and havens razed, and a full-blown Israeli incursion of Northern Gaza on cards - Who do you think is actually responsible for this mutual destruction?

This is not a rhetorical question!
Is it the Palestinian people being slaughtered in Gaza in the name of collective punishment? Already forced to live in dire humanitarian conditions for decades, and now under a barrage of sweeping aerial bombardment. Is it Hamas? A militant group allegedly backed by Iran but allowed to prosper under the convoluted and bigoted schemes concocted in the echelons of Israel. Or is it the man who would rather annihilate generations of innocent Gazans to save face when, in reality, he failed his own people?

Once you answer and look forward, my next question will inevitably take shape: Would Netanyahu be held responsible for his war crimes in Gaza like Putin in Ukraine? We all know the answer. But let us rejoice that, once wrapped in ambiguity, Israel’s true colors are finally no longer under covers.