Chance and Challenges

The general election in India is a massive activity that allows hundreds of millions of eligible voters to elect members of the Lok Sabha from 543 constituencies throughout the country. The result of this colossal showdown has the ability to alter the entire political discourse of the country. Its effects reverberate not only in India but across the sub-continent and beyond.

The next general elections scheduled for April-May 2024, will be no different. In fact, it will be a tooth-and-nail contest between the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the collective opposition represented by the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).

INDIA is an ambitious enterprise which seeks to represent the aspirations of the common Indian. The Indian National Congress party forms the core of the INDIA alliance flanked by such big names as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Janata Dal, and Shiv Sena, among others.

The Aam Aadmi Party or AAP was founded in 2012 by Arvind Kejriwal in the aftermath of the anti-corruption movement of 2011. AAP currently rules the state of Punjab and also governs the Delhi Union Territory. Recently, in April 2023, the Election Commission of India granted the AAP with the National Party status.

The inclusion of AAP within INDIA is a significant positive addition to the alliance. AAP enjoys a massive following among youth, and is deemed as a non-corrupt progressive party. AAP’s massive appeal is all the more important in the 2024 elections because the majority of the Indian electorate is young and better-informed today than at any time in the past. Economic inclusion, healthcare and employment are core issues at the center of public debate among the youth. These issues will most likely become decisive factors in the next general elections.

India is a very diverse country in terms of language, religion and culture. This diversity paves the way for regional political candidates to play a very important role in central government formation. One of Narendra Modi’s fundamental political strengths is his country-wide appeal which leaves little room for regional political maneuvers by local actors. While INDIA has no candidate who can match Modi’s pan-India appeal, the inclusion of regional parties within the alliance has allowed it to transcend the country’s language and cultural divides.

Narendra Modi has been been at the helm of Indian politics for more than a decade. He is a a great orator, a seasoned politician and an experienced statesman. He was first elected as prime minister in 2014 riding the remarkable economic success of his native state, Gujarat. The Indian electorate believed that Modi will be able to emulate the same economic success in the entire country. Modi himself reinforced this belief when he promised ‘’ache din’’ or good days for every Indian. His victory in the next elections in 2019 solidified his position as the most popular Indian leader owing – at least partly – to BJP’s highly efficient propaganda machine, and his nationalist credentials that hold massive appeal for India’s majority Hindus. Throughout his tenure, Modi has continuously engaged with important world leaders, enhancing his image among his countrymen.

However, Modi has failed to deliver on the economic front, and that will prove decisive in the next elections. His tall promises raised hope of colossal economic reforms but his track record during the past decade is dismal. India’s GDP has consistently fallen since Modi took office in 2014. The economy has still to recover from two back-to-back shocks inflicted by Modi – the currency ban in 2016 that wiped out more than 80% of cash in circulation, and the hastily introduced GST regime that hit businesses right in their stomachs.

Rising unemployment is another factor that Modi will face in the forthcoming elections. A persistent slowdown in investments coupled with unnecessary economic shocks led to a decline in employment. Modi’s highly touted flagship initiative ‘Make in India’ failed to take off owing to a simultaneous rise of neighboring Bangladesh as a manufacturing hub, resulting in a constant decline in job creation in this sector.

Young and educated voters understand the importance of social cohesion in a country as diverse as India. They are aware that the fundamental secular nature of the country must be maintained in order to bind various religious, linguistic, ethnic and cultural groups. The BJP is responsible for stoking the flames of religious hatred resulting in sporadic communal violence in many parts of the country. The young voter will keep this factor in mind while casting his vote in the next elections.

Last but not least, since 2014 this is the first time that opposition heavy-weights such as Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee and Akhilesh Yadav have formed an alliance to take BJP head-on. Their ability to keep united throughout the elections will be a key factor in shaping India’s future.