Feature 
 

Food Security

No More Rice!

Global concerns escalate as India implements a rice export ban.

By Sara Danial | September 2023


In 2022, India was responsible for over 40% of global rice exports, totalling 55.4 million metric tonnes. Within that year, India achieved a remarkable milestone by shipping a historic 22.2 million tonnes of rice, surpassing the combined exports of the world’s four largest rice exporters after India - namely Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the United States.

The most recent action taken by the Indian government, which has already placed limitations on the export of wheat and sugar, is anticipated to impact a considerable segment of the worldwide rice trade. Rice is a fundamental dietary staple for approximately half of the global population, with Asia alone accounting for roughly 90% of global rice consumption.

In 2022, India shipped about 17.86 million tonnes of non-basmati rice to international markets. However, in September of the same year, the Indian government decided to halt the export of broken rice and additionally enforced a 20% tariff on the export of different rice grades. This action was taken due to the domestic challenge of elevated food grain prices being experienced in the country.

India provided rice at significant discounts over the previous two years, aiding economically disadvantaged countries, a substantial portion of which are situated in Asia and Africa. This was feasible due to abundant domestic rice reserves and the prevalence of reduced local prices, thereby assisting these nations in managing the surge in wheat prices.

Imposing limitations on exports from India would impact nearly every nation that imports rice. Such a decision would also allow competing suppliers like Thailand and Vietnam to increase their prices, which are already more than 30% higher than those of Indian shipments. As expected, the export restriction imposed in July has triggered concerns about the potential escalation of worldwide rice prices. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), predicts that this ban could lead to price hikes, potentially causing a surge of up to 15% in global grain prices within this year.


Besides catering to Asian purchasers such as China, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Philippines, India also provides rice to countries like Togo, Benin, Senegal, and Cameroon.

Every year in June, millions of farmers commence planting summer rice, coinciding with the onset of the monsoon season in India. The monsoon, contributing approximately 70% of India’s annual rainfall, holds immense importance for water-intensive rice cultivation.

A substantial portion of Indian farmers depends on monsoon precipitation to irrigate nearly half of the agricultural land, which lacks access to irrigation facilities. For the year 2022, the meteorological projections indicated an anticipated average rainfall pattern for India. However, since the commencement of the four-month monsoon period on June 1, rainfall has fallen significantly short, measuring 41% below the historical average.

In contrast to the situation with wheat, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February did not lead to a notable increase in rice exports from India. This lack of response can be attributed to the fact that the Black Sea region, where the events unfolded, does not hold significant importance as a rice producer or consumer.

In India, an astonishing quantity of 41 million tonnes of rice is stored in public granaries, a stockpile that exceeds the buffer requirement by over threefold. This rice supply serves both as a strategic reserve and as part of the Public Distribution System (PDS), a mechanism that grants over 700 million impoverished individuals access to affordable sustenance.

According to Devinder Sharma, a knowledgeable figure in Indian agricultural policy, the government’s actions aim to address the expected decrease in production proactively. Regions cultivating rice in the southern part of the country are additionally vulnerable to the threat of reduced rainfall due to the approaching weather phenomenon later this year.

Food export bans are not a novel occurrence. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year, the count of nations enforcing export limitations on food has surged from three to 16, as reported by Ifpri. Indonesia placed restrictions on palm oil exports, Argentina halted beef exports, and both Turkey and Kyrgyzstan curtailed various grain product exports. In the initial four weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic, around 21 countries enacted export restrictions on various commodities.

Numerous voices suggest that India should refrain from implementing bans on rice exports, as such actions adversely affect global food security. Escalating prices might prompt them to decrease the amount of food they consume, transition to less nutritionally sound alternatives, or make cuts in other essential expenditures such as housing and nourishment.

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