International 
 

International

Beginning of the End

It will be premature to assume that the days of Putin in power are numbered following Russia’s attack on Ukraine and failed mutiny.

By Dr. Moonis Ahmar | August 2023


Frank Hoffman, in his article “Wagner Group Coup: beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin” in DW German news agency, predicts, “Many international political analysts agree that Russian President Vladimir Putin will emerge weaker following the brief mutiny staged by Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin over the weekend. Moreover, there is a sense of bewilderment at just how the consequences might unfold in the coming days, weeks, and months.”

Ostensibly, Vladimir Putin has been able to pre-empt his dislodging from power by the powerful Wagner group in a day-long mutiny on June 25 panicked the world, but within 24 hours Wagner led mutiny collapsed as the forces of group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin reached a deal with Alexander Lukashenkothe, President of Belarus to cancel his march towards Moscow from the captured city of Rostov-on-Don. Several questions are being raised following the abortive mutiny against President Vladimir Putin. Is Putin losing control over power and will face a strong revolt against his authoritarian rule? How does the war in Ukraine tend to weaken Putin’s control over the instruments of power and mitigate his global influence? How does the power fatigue because of more than 23 years of Putin’s rule augment frustration in the general public of Russia? Will the dream of Putin to govern his country until 2036 materialize, or should he follow an ‘exit strategy’ to prevent forced removal from power?

Reflecting his authoritarian mindset and manipulative tactics, Vladimir Putin, who succeeded President Boris Yeltsin in 1999, is a ‘survivalist’ and is confident of countering any future attempt to remove or overthrow him but like other cases of over-ambitious leaders trying to remain at the helm of affairs, Putin will not be able to break the record of Joseph Stalin, Secretary General of Soviet Communist Party, who remained in power after the death of Vladimir Lenin in 1936 till his demise in 1953. So far, Putin has been in power since 1999 and has also made amendments to the constitution to contest several terms as President, but elections are due in early 2024, which will be a real test case for him.

According to an article, “Russian Mutiny: Is it the beginning of the end of President Vladimir Putin,” published in Economic Times (New Delhi) on June 26, 2023, “The recent revolt by the Wagner mercenary group has exposed weaknesses in the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin, raising questions over his ability to survive growing threats. Putin managed to quell the immediate danger, but observers say it is too early to determine the full consequences of the revolt for Putin, who has been ruling Russia for almost 25 years. The questions for Putin are particularly acute, with Russia’s March 2024 presidential election less than a year away. Controversial constitutional changes mean he can stand for two more terms until 2036”.

It is yet to be seen how Vladimir Putin will transform his power ambition into a reality by getting another term in March 2024 presidential elections because the war in Ukraine and June 2023 mutiny tend to weaken his grip over power. In August 1991, during the last days of the USSR, Soviet generals who were against the then President Mikhail Gorbachev’s policy of reforms under Perestroika (Restructuring) and Glasnost (Openness) launched a coup and managed to arrest Gorbachev. But the coup lasted for only a few days as the Russian Federation’s people, under President Boris Yeltsin’s leadership, turned against the military takeover and forced generals to step down. Although Gorbachev returned to power after that coup, his control had weakened as Yeltsin emerged as his main competitor. The Soviet Union disintegrated in December 1991, and 15 independent states emerged from the USSR. One needs to examine how fragile the power of Putin is after the failed mutiny and to what extent he can cope with new challenges to his grip over power.


Russia is the world’s largest country area-wise. It is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has a huge nuclear stockpile, and is rich in mineral and natural resources, particularly oil and gas. The confidence that Putin achieved as a result of Russia’s economic growth and nexus with the People’s Republic of China prompted him to take the risk in 2014 by occupying Crimea, a part of Ukraine. That was the beginning of Russia’s conflict with the West as sanctions were imposed on Moscow, and Russia was expelled from G-8, a group of powerful states. The joining of NATO by the former members of the Warsaw Pact and neighbors of Russia drew a red line which meant that Ukraine must not join the Atlantic alliance, and in case of joining, it will face the wrath of Moscow. When in early 2022, it was becoming clear that Ukraine was planning to join NATO, Russia attacked that country on February 22.

Russia is the world’s largest country area-wise. It is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has a huge nuclear stockpile, and is rich in mineral and natural resources, particularly oil and gas.

When Putin miscalculated his decision to attack Ukraine and occupy Kyiv, its capital, the die was cast, and Russia fell into that trap. Now, the abortive mutiny against Putin by the Wagner group was also related to his misadventure. It will be premature to assume that the days of Putin in power are numbered following Russia’s attack on Ukraine and failed mutiny. Two major realities need to be taken into account about the “beginning of the end of the Putin era.” First, Putin still possesses influence over the Russian generals, a fact which was reflected when after the failed mutiny, he addressed the Russian military high command and thanked them for failing the mutiny. But can Putin take for granted the support of Russian generals and loyalty?

With Russia’s growing military and physical losses in Ukraine, there is a growing resentment among Russian people as more and more dead bodies are being received. The failure of the Russian military to capture Kyiv and the neutralization of the Wagner group as a mercenary, but having the support of Putin, it may be difficult for Moscow to hold on to its adventure in Ukraine. On top of that, the case of war crimes in Ukraine by the Russian military and Vladimir Putin prompted the International Criminal Court (ICC) based in The Hague to take notice and hold the trial and declare Putin as a war criminal. The growing unpopularity of Putin in his country and outside because of the misadventure in Ukraine will definitely weaken his hold on power.

Second, the ripe moment for giving a practical shape to Putin’s ouster will appear in early 2024, when the Russian presidential elections will be held. ‘Power fatigue’ and frustration among the Russian people because of losses in Ukraine and sanctions imposed by the West will shape things if Putin needs to be cut down to his size. When he faced failed mutiny attempts, Putin approached the Turkish and Belarus presidents for support, along with firm backing from the Chinese president, but for how long he will bank on seeking selective assistance to deal with an internal crisis is yet to be seen.

With strong nerves and unmatched confidence to deal with a crisis situation, Putin will, however, face a difficult situation when popular resentment and dwindling support in the military will eventually weaken his position. If Putin overcomes the prevailing crisis, one can expect him to secure another presidential term in the 2024 presidential elections.

Read More

One thought on “Beginning of the End”