Region 
 

Lahore

The Last Resort

The political turmoil in Pakistan has further worsened with Imran Khan’s arrest on May 9, along with ensuing violent protests and attacks aimed against the military establishment.

By Col. Muhammad Hanif (R) | June 2023


On April 18, 2022, the then prime minister Imran Khan was voted out from the Prime Minister’s Office through a no-confidence motion brought in the National Assembly by the Opposition, namely Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), an alliance comprising 13 political parties with Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam F (JUI-F) being the main political parties. At the time of its removal from the federal government, however, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) was still very strong in the provinces with its governments in the Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB).

Having ousted the PTI government from power, the PDM formed a coalition government under the prime ministership of Shehbaz Sharif, the president of the PML-N. On April 17, 2023, the PDM government, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, completed its one year. This article discusses Pakistan’s political and economic situation on completion of the PDM government’s one year rule. To carry out an objective analysis of the situation, it is necessary to have a broad overview of the political and economic situation of the country that prevailed during and after the PTI’s 3-year rule.

The PTI government, led by Prime Minister Imran Khan, focused on the economy, addressing the pressing issue of loan repayment of almost $12 billion per year on foreign loans of $95 billion piled by the previous governments since 1972. As per macro trends, out of $95 billion loan, the military governments had taken only $24 billion, however, the PPPP and the PML (N) governments had taken $71 billion in terms of foreign debt, that too without taking measures to create enough foreign exchange reserves to return the loan.

During its tenure, the PTI government signed an economic assistance programme worth $6 billion with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a 3-year period, and it also received financial assistance from friendly countries. Due to a host of budgetary constraints imposed by the IMF, the Pakistani Rupee was devalued gradually, from the previous government’s Rs. 110 to 162 per US dollar up to April 2022, while the inflation rate went up from 5.1 per cent to 9.5 per cent. Since the prices of daily use items also reached a new record high, the poor people came under pressure, notwithstanding the help they were receiving through Ehsas programme and health insurance.

To enable Pakistan to repay foreign debt, the PTI government also concentrated on increasing the country’s foreign exchange reserves by focusing on economic growth, particularly in the tourism sector and by increasing exports, along with foreign remittances. Thus, when the PTI government ended in April 2022, the economy was in control as the exchange rate had almost reached at Rs. 162 equal to one US dollar, the economic growth was 6.2 per cent, the inflation rate was around 9.5 per cent, and exports were increased by $5 billion, while foreign exchange reserves increased from $14 billion to $22 billion.

Despite faring well in terms of its economic performance, the PTI government could not handle domestic politics well. The then prime minister Imran Khan did not realize the fact that politics was the art of possibility. During his premiership, PM Imran Khan antagonized his MNAs, MPAs and the people of Punjab by appointing Usman Buzdar as the chief minister of Punjab. Other than refusing to sit with the Opposition in the National Assembly, Imran Khan also could not maintain a friendly working relationship with the Army’s high command.

As mentioned above, Imran Khan failed to keep PTI ranks united because of his stern attitude towards his party members owing to some valid reasons, who later formed a dissident group. As Imran did not try to reconcile with the dissident MNAs, the PDM was able to entice them to join the opposition alliance to support a no-confidence move against Imran Khan. Thus, the PDM was able to oust Imran Khan and his government from power in April 2022, almost 18 months earlier than the completion of the PTI government’s 5-year rule.


However, Imran Khan termed the no-confidence motion illegal, blaming the PDM alliance for bribing his dissident MNAs to make them vote against him. Also, he unnecessarily blamed the US and Pakistan Army’s high command for facilitating the no-confidence motion. Later, without giving any substantial proof, Imran also blamed a senior army officer for his alleged involvement in a murder attempt made on him in Wazirabad, thus creating a trust deficit with the military establishment. After his ouster, Imran made a major mistake of making his MNAs resign from their National Assembly seats, rather than becoming an opposition leader and his MNAs playing a strong role there.

When the PDM government came in power, its major, yet immediate challenge was to resume an earlier agreement with the IMF to get the pending tranche of $1 billion, coupled with a much-needed financial support from friendly countries to help the government pay back foreign loans. As a long-term measure, the PDM government was supposed to increase economic growth and the rest of supportive measures to boost Pakistan’s forex reserves without taking any more loans.

Instead of reforming the economy, the PDM government gave priority to close their cases in the NAB, and went an extra mile to appease the IMF by increasing the inflation rate from 9.5 per cent to a staggering 27 per cent. The value of Pakistani rupee was deprecated from Rs. 162 per USD to Rs. 288.00 from Rs. 162 per USD, and the agreement with the IMF is still pending. This dire economic hardship has made the life of the poor masses miserable. Hence, the people are quite unhappy with the PDM government that is utilizing state machinery to weaken or even dismantle the PTI by registering false cases against its leaders almost in all provinces. For instance, the PDM government has already filed about 140 cases against Imran Khan only, and is even defying the Supreme Court orders of holding the elections in Punjab as per the constitutional provision.

The political turmoil in Pakistan has further worsened with Imran’s arrest on May 9, 2023, and ensuing violent protests by the PTI workers which were aimed against the military establishment.

Though the Army has exercised exemplary patience and restraint by not reacting to the violence, the mere happening of such incidents is beyond comprehension. Such incidents and giving harsh statements by any political leader against the Army leadership should not happen again. While the PDM government has condemned the violent incidents, it has also announced to stage a sit-in in front of the Supreme Court in Islamabad to protest against Imran’s release.

However, Imran Khan’s outburst against the Army leadership and the PDM’s outcry against the Supreme Court’s verdicts in favour of Imran Khan, have further dimmed any possibility of reconciliation between both political parties. And, in their antagonism against each other, both sides have not even cared for resolving Pakistan’s ongoing economic crisis.

In view of the above, the PDM government and the PTI have mired into a hate relationship, and there seems to be a never-ending political and economic instability in play, which is harmful for the economic stability and ultimate security of Pakistan.

Hence, to resolve this impasse in the national interest without further ado, the military high command and the Supreme Court must bring on board the leaders of the leading political parties, not to exclude the incumbent government, to make them agree on a suitable date for the next general elections. Irrespective of their political differences, they also need to sit together to agree on a consensus-based economic plan. In another way, a technocrat setup at least for the next 10 years, or the martial law imposed for the same duration could be the last resort to pull Pakistan out of the ongoing political and economic crises.

Read More