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International

Demons of Darfur

Fighting in Sudan between forces loyal to two top generals has put the nation at risk of collapse, and could have consequences far beyond its borders.

By Dr. Farah Naz | June 2023


Since April 2023, war has erupted in Sudan leading to the killing of hundreds of people, and more than 200,000 migrants into neighbouring states, displacing another 700,000 inside the country, and risks drawing in outside powers and destabilizing the region. Fighting has rocked Khartoum and adjoining areas as well as Geneina in the Darfur region. For civilians, the conflict has unleashed a nightmare of bombardment, random gunfire, home invasions and looting, flickering electricity supply, shortages of water and food, and little chance of medical help with injuries.

The warring army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF agreed on a “declaration of principles” on May 11, 2023. According to a Saudi diplomat, representatives of both generals have been in the Saudi city of Jeddah for a week, for talks intended to protect Sudan from any escalation that will lead to a humanitarian catastrophe.

The world is watching carefully and is strongly condemning the war. It is believed that the conflict can potentially destabilize an already volatile region. Alan Boswell believed that whatever happened in Sudan will not stay in Sudan as the war in Sudan will have spillover effects on other regional states. Here several questions come to mind, such as why war in Sudan, who is fighting it, and what is at stake in the region As well as why does Sudan’s conflict matter to the rest of the world? To answer all of the above questions, one needs to understand what makes Sudan an important country in the region.

Sudan, the third largest country in Africa, is located in north-east Africa, covering 1.9 million square kilometres. The country is in a strategic location bordering the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. Sudan borders five additional countries: Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, Eritrea and South Sudan, which seceded in 2011 and took 75% of Khartoum’s oil resources with it. Nearly all neighbouring countries are mired in their internal conflicts, with various rebel groups operating along the porous borders.

It is also one of the poorest countries in the world, where 46 million people live on an average annual income of $750 per head. The population of Sudan is predominantly Muslim, and the country’s official languages are Arabic and English. According to the Central Bank of Sudan, in 2022, the largest number of Sudanese imports are from the UAE followed by China, Egypt, KSA, Russia, Turkiye, the USA, etc.

Sudan is caught in a power struggle between two top generals. The ambition and rivalry between the Sudanese Army, headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary force called Rapid Support Forces (RSF), headed by General Mohammed Dagalo ‘Hemedti’, are at the centre of the crisis. The fighting that has erupted in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, and elsewhere in the country is a direct result of a vicious power struggle within the country’s military leadership. Fighting in Sudan between forces loyal to two top generals has put that nation at risk of collapse and could have consequences far beyond its borders.

Both sides have tens of thousands of fighters, foreign backers, mineral riches and other resources that could insulate them from sanctions. Since the 2021 coup, Sudan has been run by a council of generals, led by the two military men at the centre of this dispute: Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the armed forces and in effect the country’s president and his deputy and leader of the RSF, Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.


The shooting began on April 15, 2023, following days of tension as members of the RSF were redeployed around the country in a move that the army saw as a threat. There had been some hope that talks could resolve the situation, but these never happened.

Here a question arises of what is at stake with this war in the region and how powerful countries are related to Sudan. Sudan is geo-strategically very important to many powerful countries including the U.S. having deep interests in both Africa and the Middle East. With the Biden administration prioritizing continuing U.S. counter-terrorism policies in Africa and the Middle East, striving for security in the Red Sea, and countering the influence of Russia and China in both regions, the Sudanese military has focused on pushing Washington to drop any support for democracy in the country. Yet the Biden administration has tried to pursue both stability and democracy at the same time, calling for a new civil-military partnership. It remains to be seen if that policy will survive, should the Sudanese civilian opposition unite and force the military to hand over power to full civilian transitional rule.

In terms of Russia, Moscow has a long-term interest in Sudan’s warm water ports for its navy, and in the year 2020 President Vladimir Putin said he approved a proposal to set up a logistic laboratory in Sudan. One of the key players in the current conflict General Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo visited Russia earlier this year and said Sudan had no problem with countries opening bases as long as they don’t pose a threat to national security. Along with Russia, General Hamdan has struck up relations with other powers such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Egypt also has close ties to Sudan’s military, which it sees as an ally against Ethiopia. Cairo has reached out to both sides in Sudan to press for a ceasefire but is unlikely to stand by if the military faces defeat. For Egypt and Türkiye, a full-fledged civil war in Sudan would represent a significant threat to their presence in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa – especially for the Cairo-led front against Ethiopia’s Great Renaissance Dam. Egypt is also the most important backer of Sudan’s armed forces and Army Chief General Abdul Fattah al-Burhan.

All states concerned call for a ceasefire as it is in their best interest. The possibility of protracted fighting increases the risk of civil war and impacts the already aggravated economic crisis and Chad and South Sudan look most immediately at risk of potential spill-over. But the longer the fighting drags on the more likely it is we see major external intervention.

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