Change of Heart

On April 6, Iran and Saudi Arabia formally announced to re-establish diplomatic relations, establish consulates in Mashhad and Jeddah and to restore trade and travel ties. This brings into picture a fundamental question that how far the two countries will be able to deal with issues which for years led to rupture in their relations? Will Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE and other GCC member countries stop blaming Iran of sponsoring its supported elements in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon? It seems a change of heart has also taken place in Tehran where a realization of peace with Arab Gulf countries to deal with U.S-Israeli nexus led to transformation in Iranian policy.

According to a news report titled, “Middle East Diplomacy: The Less Bad Old Days” published in March 18th issue of London Economist, “Saudi Arabia and Iran have spent years talking about reconciliation. Such talks have gained new urgency in recent months, largely because both countries are exhausted. The Saudis have failed in their major foreign policy gambits over the past decade, whether trying to overthrow Mr. Assad or dethrone the Houthis. Saudi Arabia’s priority is to extract itself from its war in Yemen, launched in March 2015. Eight years and hundreds of thousands of deaths later, the Houthis still control much of the country and the war has only pushed them closer to Iran”.

Conflict fatigue and genuine need on the part of Riyadh and Tehran to mend fences led to March 10 multilateral agreement giving a practical shape to Iran-Saudi reconciliation – a win-win situation for both former adversaries. Following mending of fences with Tehran, Saudi Arabia and Yemen decided to ceasefire and proceed for peace in their relations.

Nevertheless, Iran-Saudi mending of fences in the light of Chinese diplomacy needs to be examined from three angles. First, since long Beijing, because of its energy and other strategic interests in the Middle East, wanted to play a pivotal role in the region. Since, mediating in Palestinian-Israeli conflict seemed difficult because of established American role; the challenge of facilitating in Iran-Saudi conflict management provided a valuable opportunity for China. China’s diplomacy to mend Saudi-Iranian fences got a boost on April 6 when in Beijing a joint statement was issued after talks between the Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan in which it was stated that: “The two sides emphasized the importance of following up on the implementation of the Beijing Agreement and its activation in a way that that expands mutual trust and the fields of cooperation and helps create security, stability and prosperity in the region.” The signing ceremony was also attended by the Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang who lauded breakthrough in relations between the two former adversaries.

Now China plans to deepen its economic, trade and energy ties with both Iran and Saudi Arabia along with other Gulf States which will be a matching response to an age-old American deep rooted role in the Middle East. Consequently, along with Russia, China plans to neutralize the U.S strategic and military presence in the oil rich Gulf sheikhdoms. Second, ending Saudi-Iranian proxy war which was going on since 1979 is a major development because the beneficiaries of that armed conflict were Israel and the United States. It means, both Riyadh and Tehran have understood huge costs of their conflict particularly in Yemen and elsewhere so that sectarian schism which damaged peace in the Gulf and larger Middle East will diminish. Pakistan will be a beneficiary of perceived termination of Saudi-Iranian sectarian conflict because since 1979 both Iran and Saudi Arabia were involved in patronizing their sectarian groups thus fomenting sectarian violence. Similarly, countries like Yemen, Syria and Lebanon where Riyadh and Tehran since long were involved in proxy war will now cease their involvement.

Finally, one should not underestimate the potential role of Israel and the United States in destabilizing Saudi-Iranian mending of fences. Fears about the Iranian nuclear programme as a threat to Saudi and Gulf interests in the Middle East cannot be neutralized. One needs to understand some basic realities which in the last four decades or so caused rupture in Saudi-Iranian relations which cannot be just eradicated with trilateral agreement mediated by China. The threat of ‘Shia crescent’ in the Middle East patronized by Iran still looms large. Unless, Iran and Saudi Arabia exterminate enemy images against each other not much can be done to create a long-lasting goodwill and peace between the two neighbours. There are elements in the UAE and Bahrain who are still suspicious of Iranian agenda of patronizing Shia groups since long. Furthermore, Egypt, also pursued anti-Iranian policy and shared perceptions with Riyadh and other Gulf countries about Tehran’s nuclear weapon’s programme and its role in fomenting ‘Shia crescent’ in the Middle East.

To sum up, it is too early to pass a judgment about Saudi-Iranian mending of fences because still there are unresolved issues which triggered conflict between the two countries. Unless positive change occurs at the policy making and at the grassroots’ level diminishing enemy images, the prevailing euphoria emanating from March 16 and April 6 mending of fences may be short lived.