New Delhi
Modi Magic
It is mind-boggling to see how criminal governance structures enjoy so much legitimacy as Modi does in India.
Looking at Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi from Pakistan’s perspective, we see a leader that reeks of Hindu fundamentalism and populism, someone who is determined to destroy the secular constitution of India and set up a Hindu State that has no place for minorities, particularly the Muslims. Picture comes to mind thinking about Modi who through the use of populism has provoked religious sensitivities, has incited the latent fears and exploited the underlying fissures in society and has managed to gather steam and is riding on a wave of popularity based on negativity. You see a leader that has managed to capture political and administrative power and put his goons at the helm of affairs in ministerial and strong administrative positions with judiciary lamely following suit and obliging.
Supposedly, India remains a secular state and a multi-faith democracy. Religious minorities account for roughly 20 percent of the country’s 1.4 billion people, who include about 200 million Muslims and 28 million Christians. But beneath the country’s perceived inclusivity runs an undercurrent of Hindu nationalism that has been systematically promoted through state patronage and has gained strength during the rule of Prime Minister Modi.
Modi has encouraged the surge in communal violence against all minorities in recent years but the largest minority, the Muslims have faced the worst kind of atrocities committed against them. A number of new laws have been enacted that adversely affected their daily lives and interfere with the religious garments they wear, the food they eat, where and how they worship, and even whom they marry. Modi, the Butcher of Gujrat, is a criminal who has been iconized not only by his cult following but is also aided by the full potential of the political, economic, administrative and judicial apparatus to put him on a pedestal as saviour of the Indian nation.
Modi has created a personality cult around him. Despite bad governance and several political setbacks, Modi’s charisma and popularity helped the BJP return to power in 2019 elections. The BJP sought votes only in Modi’s name and won. This has created a fascist monster who is using influence of his personality cult to destroy the secular fabric of India and create a Hindu state. Inspired by Modi’s policy of hate, otherization, exclusion and fanaticism, his blind followers are playing havoc with the hapless minorities of India, particularly the Muslims.
There are many instances of criminal leaders who are highly dangerous because of the divisive and hate infested ideologies they propagate yet who are admired or even loved by people who feel supported and protected by them. It is mind-boggling to see how criminal governance structures who use violence enjoy so much legitimacy as Modi does in India. Government backed criminal use of violence, contentious, disruptive, discordant and acrimonious discourse to wipe out opposition and other elements who may not fit their own myopic, narrow and intolerant ideology, should not be acceptable at any level both internally by the population and externally by the rest of the world.
In Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir, the situation is even worse. Two provisions in the Indian Constitution, Article 35-A and Article 370, retained Kashmir’s autonomy and recognised its special status. They formerly preserved the rights of the ‘permanent residents’ of Kashmir from displacement and any attempts to change the demographics of the state. India unlawfully annexed Jammu and Kashmir by rendering it a Union Territory on August 5, 2019, to be directly ruled by the Central Government, in violation of international law. India has violated the obligation to maintain public order in Jammu and Kashmir through flagrant human rights violations in the region. Since Modi took office in 2014, a practical genocide is taking place in IIOJ&K and yet there is complete silence in the international community as India becomes the favoured partner of the U.S.A as a counterweight to China.
India has political issues with all its neighbours, particularly with Pakistan who refuses to accept India’s bullying and hegemony particularly when it comes to accepting India as the net security provider in Asia and the Pacific. India leaves no opportunity to blame Pakistan and instigate violence and accusations against its eastern neighbour. Modi has specially used the Pakistan and terrorism threat with great success both internally and externally. There is a possibility that as the general elections come closer, Modi may try to again use the Pakistan threat and indulge in a Balakot type of misadventure or threaten war to gain cheap popularity and votes of Hindu voters. Whether Modi will be tempted to use the Pakistan card will depend on how the internal politics evolves as the General Elections of 2024 approach closer.
Instead of an anti-incumbency sentiment, Modi’s popularity has only grown with the passage of time and the Modi card is still the BJP’s trump card as India prepares for the 2024 elections. According to some opinion polls appearing in Indian media nearly 78% of the eligible voters are satisfied with the Modi government’s performance and would prefer to see Modi winning a third term in 2024.
The Indians, particularly the Hindu majority views Modi as a leader who has delivered on some of the important promises he had made during the 2014 elections most prominent of which was cancellation of the Special status of IIOJ&K which he did in August 2019. Other promises included growing the economy, creation of millions of jobs, access to clean drinking water for all, hygienic India for all and microcredit linked to mobile phones for the most underprivileged segments of Society. Modi has successfully delivered on most of these and we now see even the Indian economy picking up after the COVID-19 pandemic.
His ideology of strident Hindu nationalism, combined with promises of economic development, remains a big draw with voters. Almost 13 months before the next General Election, Modi is already in pole position and is projecting himself as “lone worrier” against a large number of opposition parties who all want to remove him from power. This was clearly evident from his recent statement in the upper house of parliament when roared that the nation was witnessing how an individual was strongly facing many, thus setting the tone for the 2024 elections. Modi is appealing to the voters on the slogan that he was living for the country, the directionless opposition is struggling to find a common platform to take on Modi. It suits BJP to have this narrative of one leader (Modi) taking on the fight with a long list of opposition leaders. Modi versus the rest.
Although the phenomenal economic rise that Modi had promised has not materialized, yet we the youth of India, particularly the millennial, whose numbers close to 400 million are firmly behind Modi. He has inculcated the dream in the Indian youth that India would leapfrog from the fifth to the third largest economy this decade. Most of these people had voted for Modi and his ruling BJP in 2014 and 2019, buying their promises of wide-scale development and hundreds of millions of new jobs for India’s booming population of young people. They see Modi as a strong leader, who rose to lead the largest democracy of the world from humble beginnings as a tea vendor. The local flavour that Modi provides by wearing the traditional dress and speaking in Hindi both at home and abroad, makes the youth relate to him and he has become an inspirational hero to be emulated.
Indian analysts also feel that the toilets, bank accounts and water connections his government has provided people since first coming to power in 2014 will win Modi a third term in 2024. By implementing the path-breaking schemes, he gained the trust of the poorer class. The BJP will also hammer home the point that schemes launched by the centre are essentially Modi’s schemes for the country’s citizens, especially the poor and women. The government had announced a number of schemes targeted at those at the bottom of the pyramid. The Swachh Bharat (Hygienic Bharat) programme has been a crucial driver of change. The Swachh Bharat Mission was announced in 2014. According to Indian government data, about 6.281 million toilets have been constructed across households along with over 600,000 community toilets. Some 4,355 cities have been declared free of open defecation.
JAM trinity has been another game changer--opening bank accounts in the context of a billion phones became a very powerful instrument in making transfers and reducing corruption. The core components of JAM are basic savings bank accounts opened under the Jan Dhan Yojana, the Aadhaar unique identity number and the mobile phone. Around 480 million bank accounts have been opened under Jan Dhan Yojana.
A third policy intervention has been the Nal Se Jal scheme, aimed at providing a potable water connection to every household by 2024. According to Indian government data, over 30 million rural households already have functional tap water connections and the government is targeting covering the remaining households by 2024. These schemes directly benefit women, who have been increasingly coming out to vote, and also determining how their household votes.
In contrast, today the opposition looks even more fragmented than it was in 2014 when the BJP first won general elections bringing Modi to power. There seems to be merit in the Indian Home Minister’s statement that there were no competitors to Modi and that the Indian nation was solidly behind him. In view of the unprecedented popularity and political support that Modi enjoys both in India and the Western world, it seems unlikely at the moment to see India indulging in any misadventure with Pakistan or for that matter with China in order to win votes at the polls in 2024. Modi’s position seems to be secure and unchallenged. He has already consolidated his hold on IIOJ&K without facing any criticism or negative impact from the international community. He also fully understands the strength of Pakistan’s defence capabilities and its power to reciprocate in equal measure. Therefore, unless there is a dramatic change in India’s internal political dynamics and Modi feels challenged in any way, the possibility of further turning up the heat on Pakistan remains remote in the election context.
However if he returns to power in 2024 with a huge majority, he may be tempted to resolve India’s Pakistan problem and get his name engraved in Indian history in golden words. But he knows it will not be easy or even possible. The Indians understand that today’s Pakistan is not as vulnerable as it was in 1971 and any adventurism by India may not bring them any dividends.
The writer served as Ambassador of Pakistan to China, European Union, Belgium, Luxembourg and Ireland, from 1993 to 2020. She can be reached at naghmanahashmi40@gmail.com
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Why do you want India to be a “secular” country? Do you want India to empower the wannabe foreigner gang/legion members who have Yahoodi names (bit Romanized in case of Christians and bit Bedouinized in case of MohMaddens) and who hate everything native and consider those who caused generational trauma of loot, plunder, rapes and genocide on natives of India? If roots of native spirituality, Dharma, culture and celebration of achievements of native ancestors then Indians will have faith like Afghanistan and Pakistan, acrowd of rootless parasites who can’t form a nation. If nation building by nurturing roots is anti-secular then let India not be a secular country.