Region 
 

Kabul

New Delhi, Old Tactics

The on-going TTP onslaught and misadventures by Afghan border forces against Islamabad serve as the pressure tactics towards the reversal of the merger of FATA.

By Ali Hassan Bangwar | March 2023


Over a year and a half has passed to the fall of Kabul, Afghanistan stands isolated and unrecognized in the comity of nations. On account of Taliban’s utter disregard for international commitments and prerequisites of statehood, no state has so far shown an explicit intention of recognising it. Nevertheless, the Kabul of today couldn’t escape the implied attention of the countries vying to claim the anticipatory influence. What adds to its scope in the international eyes, despite standing unrecognised, is its geopolitical, geostrategic and historical significance.

Situated at the crossroads of Central Asia, the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent, Afghanistan enjoyed a key role in the Asian geo-political gamble. It claims a distinctive transport and transit axis since the classical Silk Road. Besides, its centrality in context to the historically great power chessboard has made the country the centre of global politics, competition and cooperation. The local, regional and international actors and states have interfered with and influenced the internal political, social and economic dynamics of Afghanistan for decades.

However, the takeover of the Taliban has radically altered the context of interests and terms of engagement. The countries, including its neighbours, reassess and reorient the nature of the relationship with Kabul under the Taliban. Against the backdrop of the on-going fluid geopolitical realities and realignments unfolding in Asia, India is vying for spreading its tentacles in Afghanistan. To this end, New Delhi has been so doing its best in strengthening its cardinality with its erstwhile foe, the Taliban.

In this, Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval at a regional security summit held in late May in Tajikistan urged the neighbouring countries to fund the counter-terrorism efforts in the war-ravaged Afghanistan. Moreover, an Indian delegation, led by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Joint Secretary, JP Sindh, met the Taliban leaders in earlier June 2022. This was followed by another immediate development-the reopening of the Indian embassy in Kabul later the same month. Apart from the diplomatic ties, India promises regional security and humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan.

Since the current Taliban leadership, unlike its predecessor, is postured towards realism and pragmatism in forging bilateral ties, the Indian diplomatic posture, therefore, is received by the Taliban government as a welcome development in securing latter’s national interests. Kabul hopes that Indian investment would help them relieve their economic crisis by reviving the development projects’ investment.

Though New Delhi had been deeply involved in deep diplomatic and economic engagement in Afghanistan under Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani, the relations between the two countries did freeze in the aftermath of the Taliban’s takeover.

Though the Indian authority claims humanitarian motivations behind the strengthening of ties with Afghanistan, experts and analysts view the engagement in the context of New Delhi’s geopolitical rivalry with Pakistan and China. Some experts also view these developments in the USA as part of containment efforts against its strategic competitor, Beijing. Moreover, India’s aggressive posture and counterbalancing strategy against Pakistan’s earlier stakes in the Taliban also contribute to this rapprochement.


The claims about the motivations behind the rapprochement notwithstanding, India’s offensive regional designs vis-à-vis Taliban, China and Pakistan are going to have disastrous and lasting implications for the Af-Pak region in general and for Pakistan in particular.

India’s growing influence on Taliban leadership would add security threats and concerns for Pakistan. This would also help shape the contour of the Taliban’s policy towards Islamabad.

First, this would allow operational, strategic and logistic stakes for Indian proxies against Pakistan. The BLA and the proscribed groups could get their commitments with New Delhi rejuvenated. The nexus of the TTP, the Taliban and the RAW as well as proscribed Baloch ethno-nationalists group could compound the security risk for Pakistan, particularly Balochistan.

Second, the TTP threat factor against Pakistan would get compounded. This is clear from the TTP’s recent withdrawal from the ceasefire and its growing extremist activities in Pakistan. The outlawed group could get operational backing from India in carrying out its nefarious designs against Islamabad.

Third, the Indian rapprochement would strengthen the Taliban’s stance of not acknowledging the Durand Line- the 2640-kilometre de facto frontier between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The on-going TTP onslaught and misadventures by Afghan border forces against Islamabad serve as the pressure tactics towards the reversal of the FATA’s merger. This is evident from unprovoked Afghan border force shelling on the Chaman border that recently left 7 Pakistani civilians dead and over a dozen injured.

And last but not least, the Indian presence in Afghanistan would amount to the latter’s bid of encircling Pakistan. As India enjoys friendly ties with Iran, cordial ties with Kabul would afford it strategic depth in these two countries. This would scale the security risks for Islamabad to an unprecedented extent.

On account of testing political, strategic and security times ahead, Islamabad needs pragmatic approaches in dealing with the imminent security threats of kinetic and hybrid nature. Pakistan can navigate the complex security challenges emanating from the rival elements only through collaborative and coordinated intelligence, security, counter-narrative and sustainable counter-terrorism efforts.

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