Friend or Foe?

It is an old international relations and foreign policy dictum that “there are no permanent enemies and permanent allies but only interests.” A paradigm shift in global order following the collapse of the Soviet Union and mending of fences in Sino-Russian relations had profound impact on Pakistan-Russia ties. The dictum, “Your enemy’s enemy is my friend,” which was quite valid during cold war years, transformed with the passage of time. Certainly, both the past and present will shape transformation in the relationship between Pakistan and Russia as the two are distant neighbours instead of adversaries in the past. This can help them unleash the process of meaningful relations to the point of a ‘win-win situation’ for both nations.

The Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Pakistan, H.E. Danila Ganich delivered a public talk on “Future of Pakistan-Russia Relations”. The event was organized and hosted by Centre for Strategic Perspective (CSP) at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) on April 14, 2021. Speaking on the occasion, Mr. Ganich vividly said, “Pakistan-Russia relations are developing at a normal pace, but change cannot be expected overnight. As far as the future of bilateral ties is concerned, it is promising.”

A predictable paradigm shift in Pakistan-Russia relations can be examined from three angles. First, Sino-Russian courtship and the efforts of Beijing to transform Moscow’s narrative about Pakistan. Pulling out from an age-old Sino-Soviet rivalry during the cold war days, both Russia and China agreed to mend fences despite their contentious border issues. China was also instrumental in convincing Russia to support Pakistan’s membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). At the Tashkent summit of SCO held in September last year, Russia didn’t support India when it tried to use that forum to launch a tirade against Pakistan. Unlike the past when Moscow used to put its weight behind India against Pakistan, situation changed in the post-cold war era when New Delhi reached an understanding with the United States reflecting paradigm shift in their bilateral ties.

When Russia and China are on the same page for a multipolar world and are understandable about American pressure on Islamabad to desist from getting closer to Beijing and Moscow, one can expect more stability in Pakistan-Russia ties. However, recently, Pakistan sought clarification from Russia on the allegation of Russian Senator Igor Morozov that Ukraine and Pakistan discussed technologies for developing nuclear weapons. Reacting to such allegations, Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesman issued a statement on November 1, 2022. He said, “We are surprised by such an unfounded and baseless statement. It is without any rationale, and is entirely inconsistent with the spirit of Pakistan-Russia relations.” It is yet to be investigated that what was the source of allegation of Russian Senator Morozov or he was influenced by powers hostile to Pakistan?

Secondly, there are still remnants of cold war mindset in Pakistan who suspect Russia and its intentions. They are the ones who tried to derail the import of wheat from Russia as well as striking a deal to buy gas and oil from that country. The pretext of Western/U.S sanctions against Russia following its occupation of Crimea in 2014 and invading Ukraine in 2022 is not applicable in case of India and many other countries who are able to sustain their trade with Moscow regardless of reservations from the West. Then why only Pakistan is being coerced not to trade with Russia and also Iran? It means in the power elites of Pakistan there are elements who don’t want to offend the U.S by importing wheat, gas and oil from Russia.

Finally, the prospects in Pakistan-Russia relations depend on the domestic situation of both countries. Growing pressure against the regime of President Putin in the backdrop of war in Ukraine is a reality and is tacitly supported by the West. Likewise, the current political scene in Pakistan is marred with surge in political confrontation between the government and the PTI-led opposition, which is pressing its demand to hold early free and fair elections. The then Prime Minister Imran Khan was criticized by the West and some elements in Pakistan of undertaking visit to Moscow the day when Russia attacked Ukraine. Pakistan has adopted a neutral stance on Russian-Ukraine conflict and abstained in UN General Assembly resolution which had condemned foreign intervention in Ukraine.

Logically speaking, both Islamabad and Moscow should aim to improve and bring their trade relations to greater heights. Yet, it all depends on peace and stability in Afghanistan as Pakistan’s land trade with Russia via Central Asia cannot proceed without peace in that volatile country. Importing gas, oil and wheat from Russia, which is geographically closer to Pakistan than the West will be in the interest of Islamabad. Yet, in view of sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union on Russia following its occupation of Crimea in 2014 and attack on Ukraine in 2022, Pakistani banks are reluctant to open letter of credit for the import of wheat and oil. Islamabad needs to find out a way-out to bug cheap oil from Moscow despite pressure exerted by the West not to enter into trade with Russia.

Realistically speaking, Pakistan and Russia are distant neighbours but not adversaries. Both share similar regional security perceptions and want to better their relations by forging meaningful trade, technological, industrial and cultural ties. Given Russia’s enormous landmass, mineral and natural resources, its huge industrial base, economic vibrancy and sizeable foreign exchange reserves, Pakistan can benefit a lot from Moscow’s powerful status in the world today.