International
Friend or Foe?
Despite a chequered history, both Pakistan and Russia should now aim to improve their diplomatic ties and bring their trade relations to greater heights.
Russian President Vladimir Putin with Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
The mending of fences in Pakistan-Russia relations is a reality despite historical discords and animosities between both countries. Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan paid an ill-timed visit to Moscow in February 2022 and the current Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif met the Russian President Vladimir Putin on the occasion of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) Summit held in Tashkent in September 2022. Without a doubt, marked improvement in Pakistan-Russia relations in the recent past will shape and strengthen their ties in the years to come.
Before Imran Khan, the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had paid a visit to Moscow in 1999. On the other hand, no Russian president has visited Pakistan since ages because in 2012 President Putin cancelled his visit to Islamabad and instead sent his foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. However, as things currently stand, what are the prospects of Pakistan-Russia relations in the light of events in Ukraine and to what extent the United States will sustain its efforts to prevent import of oil and gas from Russia?
Chequered history of Pakistan-Soviet relations since the cancellation of visit to Moscow by Pakistan’s first Prime Minister Liaquat Ali khan in 1950 and its joining anti-Soviet U.S led alliances till the collapse of USSR reflected deep rooted mistrust and antagonism reaching its peak during the 1971 India-Pakistan war and the Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan in 1979. A chain of events after the Soviet disunion and the emergence of Russian Federation as a successor state of USSR shaped new dynamics of Pakistan-Russia relations, particularly the role of China in this regard. Even during the Soviet days, there were pleasant phases in Pakistan-Soviet ties when Moscow built Pakistan Steel Mills in Karachi, conducted oil and gas exploration and constructed Gaddu Thermel power plant.
During the reign of President Vladimir Putin, one can notice marked improvement in Pakistan-Russia ties as Moscow’s reservations on Chechnya and Afghanistan were somehow mitigated. According to the reports: “Pakistan and Russia have developed a “new” interest in serving mutual national objectives. Rostec is a state-controlled Russian company that became a stakeholder of the PakStream Gas Pipeline Project (PSGP). The 1,100 kilometre PSGP is scheduled to be complete in 2023 and will transport liquefied natural gas (LNG) from terminals in Karachi and Gwadar to Lahore. According to an agreement signed in July 2021, Moscow has given Islamabad a majority stake in the project (74 percent) and pledged to help Pakistan with expertise and funding. The PSGP is one of the largest Russian investments in Pakistan since the Soviet Union assisted in developing the Oil and Gas Development Company and Pakistan Steel Mills in the 1960s and 1970s”.
Furthermore, Pakistan is deficient in oil, gas and now in wheat, and the best possible option to overcome the shortage crisis is to import such items from Moscow. For instance, Pakistan has a gas shortfall of 1.5 billion cubic feet per day, which is expected to double by 2025. Authorities have estimated that domestic gas supplies will drop from 3.51 bcfd in 2019 to 1.67 bcfd in 2028, necessitating an increase in LNG imports to meet demand. With the signing of a “shareholders’ agreement” in July 2021, Russia and Pakistan have outlined the roadmap for future cooperation, including the construction of a US$2.5 billion (S$3.4 billion) natural gas pipeline in Pakistan. This project, promised in 2019, is a part of a Russian investment package worth of US$14 billion (S$18.7 billion) in Pakistan’s energy sector.
During the visit of the then Prime Minister Imran Khan to Moscow the day when Russia attacked Ukraine, Imran Khan stated: “We went there because we have to import 2 million tonnes of wheat from Russia. Secondly, we have signed agreements with them to import natural gas because Pakistan’s own gas reserves are depleting. Inshallah (God willing), the time will tell that we have had great discussions,” the Pakistani leader said, referring to his three-hour meeting with Putin. He shared no further details. He also remarked about his visit to Moscow that: “What a time I have come, so much excitement,” Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was heard saying at the airport as he arrived in Moscow ahead of a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin when Russian forces had attacked Ukraine.

Prime Minister of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif with
Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Pakistan, H.E. Danila Ganich delivered a public talk on “Future of Pakistan-Russia Relations”. The event was organized and hosted by Centre for Strategic Perspective (CSP) at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) on April 14, 2021. Speaking on the occasion, Mr. Ganich vividly said, “Pakistan-Russia relations are developing at a normal pace, but change cannot be expected overnight. As far as the future of bilateral ties is concerned, it is promising.”
A predictable paradigm shift in Pakistan-Russia relations can be examined from three angles. First, Sino-Russian courtship and the efforts of Beijing to transform Moscow’s narrative about Pakistan. Pulling out from an age-old Sino-Soviet rivalry during the cold war days, both Russia and China agreed to mend fences despite their contentious border issues. China was also instrumental in convincing Russia to support Pakistan’s membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). At the Tashkent summit of SCO held in September last year, Russia didn’t support India when it tried to use that forum to launch a tirade against Pakistan. Unlike the past when Moscow used to put its weight behind India against Pakistan, situation changed in the post-cold war era when New Delhi reached an understanding with the United States reflecting paradigm shift in their bilateral ties.
When Russia and China are on the same page for a multipolar world and are understandable about American pressure on Islamabad to desist from getting closer to Beijing and Moscow, one can expect more stability in Pakistan-Russia ties. However, recently, Pakistan sought clarification from Russia on the allegation of Russian Senator Igor Morozov that Ukraine and Pakistan discussed technologies for developing nuclear weapons. Reacting to such allegations, Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesman issued a statement on November 1, 2022. He said, “We are surprised by such an unfounded and baseless statement. It is without any rationale, and is entirely inconsistent with the spirit of Pakistan-Russia relations.” It is yet to be investigated that what was the source of allegation of Russian Senator Morozov or he was influenced by powers hostile to Pakistan?
Secondly, there are still remnants of cold war mindset in Pakistan who suspect Russia and its intentions. They are the ones who tried to derail the import of wheat from Russia as well as striking a deal to buy gas and oil from that country. The pretext of Western/U.S sanctions against Russia following its occupation of Crimea in 2014 and invading Ukraine in 2022 is not applicable in case of India and many other countries who are able to sustain their trade with Moscow regardless of reservations from the West. Then why only Pakistan is being coerced not to trade with Russia and also Iran? It means in the power elites of Pakistan there are elements who don’t want to offend the U.S by importing wheat, gas and oil from Russia.
Finally, the prospects in Pakistan-Russia relations depend on the domestic situation of both countries. Growing pressure against the regime of President Putin in the backdrop of war in Ukraine is a reality and is tacitly supported by the West. Likewise, the current political scene in Pakistan is marred with surge in political confrontation between the government and the PTI-led opposition, which is pressing its demand to hold early free and fair elections. The then Prime Minister Imran Khan was criticized by the West and some elements in Pakistan of undertaking visit to Moscow the day when Russia attacked Ukraine. Pakistan has adopted a neutral stance on Russian-Ukraine conflict and abstained in UN General Assembly resolution which had condemned foreign intervention in Ukraine.
Logically speaking, both Islamabad and Moscow should aim to improve and bring their trade relations to greater heights. Yet, it all depends on peace and stability in Afghanistan as Pakistan’s land trade with Russia via Central Asia cannot proceed without peace in that volatile country. Importing gas, oil and wheat from Russia, which is geographically closer to Pakistan than the West will be in the interest of Islamabad. Yet, in view of sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union on Russia following its occupation of Crimea in 2014 and attack on Ukraine in 2022, Pakistani banks are reluctant to open letter of credit for the import of wheat and oil. Islamabad needs to find out a way-out to bug cheap oil from Moscow despite pressure exerted by the West not to enter into trade with Russia.
Realistically speaking, Pakistan and Russia are distant neighbours but not adversaries. Both share similar regional security perceptions and want to better their relations by forging meaningful trade, technological, industrial and cultural ties. Given Russia’s enormous landmass, mineral and natural resources, its huge industrial base, economic vibrancy and sizeable foreign exchange reserves, Pakistan can benefit a lot from Moscow’s powerful status in the world today.
The writer is Meritorious Professor and former Dean Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Karachi. He can be reached at amoonis@hotmail.com
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Well written