Beyond Our Neuralgias

Washington’s inclination towards New Delhi and its desire for Indian role in the containment of China is obvious and India has fully latched on to the opportunity to extract maximum benefits from the US, particularly in terms of strengthening its nuclear and defense capabilities and becoming a partner with the US in the new security structures being erected by the West like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), commonly known as the QUAD. Many international commentators have remarked that with the US propping up India as its global strategic partner and the counterweight to China, the importance of Pakistan and its strategic value in the region has diminished for Washington.

I do not quite agree with this assessment as in today’s world, the age of alliances is over. Any two given countries have some convergence and divergence of interest. The function of policymakers should be expanding the areas of convergence with each country while maintaining divergence to the minimum level possible. Besides the US is aware that just as India has its special relationship with Russia and is independent of its relationship with the US, so is Pakistan’s special relationship with China which has always been independent of its relationship and its ups and downs with the US. In fact, Pakistan’s importance and its geostrategic location, particularly after the completion of the deep sea port of Gwadar and the second largest international airport of Asia, Gwadar Airport nearing completion, both of which have consequences for the US’s ambitions for the containment of China. The US needs some kind of front line state against China and Pakistan is not willing to be one. We should also keep in mind that the resurgence of Russian Federation in the South Asian region and Pakistan striding towards enhancing its relations with Russia is also an important factor will effect Pakistan-US relations and will not allow the US to write off Pakistan from its strategic calculus.

Pakistan’s efforts for cementing strategic partnership with China and closeness with Russia is not easily palatable for the US. The most important thing for Pakistan is to recognize the fact that if Pakistan unilaterally depends on the US, it will always be mistreated. However, Pakistan will be treated with more respect by the US if it uses the approach of multilateralism and focuses on developing strong relations with China and Russia. Therefore, it is essential to substantially strengthen the regional perspective of Pakistan.

On the Kashmir issue, US does not seem too keen on changing the status quo. The primary US interest in South Asia is preventing confrontation between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan. The US is not interested in justice of the Kashmir cause. Since India is now the US ally, it will not work in any manner against Indian interest on Kashmir. Therefore, Pakistan should not expect any positive role by the US on Kashmir.

Often the U.S. policy and operational practitioners cite phrases such as “never underestimate the Pakistanis’ ability to disappoint us.” But, unfortunately, most American policymakers do not understand how often Pakistanis say the same thing about Americans. Thus, both sides have longstanding “neuralgias” about the other. As we are moving towards a multi-polar world, now is the time to move beyond our neuralgias and carefully weigh the strategic costs for the two countries of finally establishing a long term, predictable relationship based on mutual interest and mutual respect or failing to do so as we enter the phase of uncertainty in world politics which is likely to affect the South Asia, particularly the Indian Ocean the most. Despite the fact that the U.S. and Pakistan having close ties with each other’s rivals, there are opportunities for collaborations in non-security spaces. When interests align, there can still be cooperation. Pakistan should seek strengthened ties with the US rooted in geo-economics.

Challenges that Pakistan faces on external front, including with the US, are largely emanate from the domestic front ranging from weak economy, inflation, joblessness, youth bulge, sorry state of education, health, governance, corruption, terrorism, security threats and looming societal collapse. Pakistan has a population of 240 million people which will hit approximately 400 million people by the year 2050, therefore, it is not just our priorities but decisions made today that will have immense impact on the situation and challenges that policymakers are going to be confronted with in in 2050.

Foreign policy is a reflection of domestic policies and the key for Pakistan to achieve foreign policy goals is to have internal political and economic consolidation. Pakistan performed miserably on Millennium Development Goals (MDG). Now that the world has adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), again Pakistan’s performance has not been even close to encouraging.

With reference to Afghanistan and India, even though Pakistan is strategically located but such geographic gift has been more of a challenge so far than an asset especially when seen from the viewpoint of a country that has to make achievements about its own objectives. Strategic location itself is not automatically going to convert to advantage unless the domestic problems of Pakistan are sorted out. Being strategically important for regional peace does not make Pakistan important unless it demonstrates qualitative and quantitative expansion of its economy. A multi-aligned Pakistan focused primarily on economic development and not heavily invested in geopolitics is the course that is required to be pursued.