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Interview

‘The Middle East is now shifting into a post-Islamist phase.’

Brian Whitaker, a veteran British journalist and author, talks to SouthAsia in this exclusive interview with Faizan Usmani.

February 2022

Who are the actors critically influencing the transformation process in the Arab world?
The transformation process isn’t being driven by political parties, and even opposition parties. The process is largely leaderless and comes mainly from ordinary people who feel ignored or excluded under the present system. At the same time, globalisation has raised their aspirations. Satellite TV, the internet and foreign travels have given them a glimpse of lifestyles in other parts of the world that they compare unfavourably with those in their home country.

Will the recent wave of change in the Arab world lead to any governance change?
In terms of changing governance, the Arab Spring was basically a failure. A decade later of the uprising, Yemen, Syria and Libya are still in turmoil while Egypt is back under a military dictatorship that in many ways is more oppressive than the regime that the revolution overthrew. Until recently, Tunisia seemed to be the only success story, but over the last few months its future has become much more uncertain.

Since the Arab Spring, there have been uprisings in Algeria and Sudan, and a collapse of governance in Lebanon. The outcome in Algeria looks more like a rejuvenation of the old system rather than real change. In Sudan, the military is continuing to resist a transition to civilian government. In Lebanon, there are multiple factional interests competing for a share of the cake and their reluctance to cede power is ruining the country. The Arab Spring did come as a shock to the region’s entrenched regimes, and preventing further uprisings became one of their priorities. Their instinctive approach is to suppress discontent, or buy if off by creating unnecessary government jobs, rather than addressing its causes.

Among the wealthy Gulf states there’s a slightly different strategy. The United Arab Emirates established a “National Happiness and Positivity Programme” and Saudi Arabia set up a national “Quality of Life” initiative. The aim, according to the Saudis, is to encourage citizens’ participation in “cultural, entertainment and sports activities”. Nice as this might be, it’s a fairly transparent attempt to divert their attention from politics.


Does increasing talk about reform in the Arab countries translate into actual reform?
Not really. There was a lot of talk in the early 2000s when former U.S. President George W. Bush was pushing for democratic reforms in the Middle East and Arab leaders were worried about suffering the same fate as Saddam Hussein, but it achieved almost nothing. However, there has been quite a lot of social change, especially among the younger generation but so far it hasn’t really translated into political change.

Are Arabs turning their backs on religion?
Some certainly are. Their numbers seem to be growing, but it’s difficult to be sure because non-believers are often afraid to question religion openly. Perhaps more importantly, there is an ongoing battle within Islam between Muslims who interpret the Qur’an literally and ahistorically, and those who say it should be interpreted historically in the light of current circumstances – which have changed considerably since the time of the Holy Prophet (Peace be upon him). There are also issues about how to co-exist with religious minorities – either Islamic minorities or those from different religions.

Has the Arab-Israel proximity put the Palestinian issue on the back burner?
The Palestinian issue has been on the back burner for years, basically since the breakdown of the Oslo Accords. The recent rapprochement between Gulf states and Israel is largely a recognition of international realities but I doubt that much will change as a result. Regardless of what the leaders do, reconciliation with Israel without solving the Palestinian question is still very unpopular among large swathes of the Arab public. The situation is unlikely to change very much.

There is an ongoing battle within Islam between Muslims who interpret the Qur’an literally and ahistorically.

One question that has come out of the current change in the Arab world is whether political Islam is waxing or waning?
The rise of political Islam was largely a response to the failure of Arab nationalism. The Arabs’ humiliating defeat at the hands of Israel in 1967 prompted a lot of debate about why it happened, and some concluded that it was because Arabs had strayed too far from religion – hence the Muslim Brotherhood’s slogan: “Islam is the solution”. The success of the Islamic revolution in Iran and, later, the mujahideen’s defeat of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan appeared to support that view.

One strand of political Islam favoured armed struggle (for instance IS/Daesh, al-Qaeda, etc.) while the other strand engaged in electoral politics (as in Egypt and Tunisia), but both have failed to achieve their goals. That doesn’t mean political Islam has gone away but it is clearly in decline and the Middle East is now shifting into a post-Islamist phase. Exactly what that will entail is still unclear.

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