Evolution or Revolution?

We were on a trip to Scandinavian countries in 2018. The young Saudi man who was to be my roommate in the group was from Mecca, as I learnt. Thinking him to be young and restless and comparatively liberal in outlook, I enquired from him about popularity of reforms ushered in by the Crown Prince and de facto Saudi ruler, Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS). He did not hesitate in opposing the much-touted liberal agenda of MBS. I was taken aback. But then he must have been a conservative minority from a holy city, in a vast pool of young people riding along the Crown Prince to cross frontiers, never crossed before in the Kingdom. The recently concluded series of music concerts in Jeddah – a stone throw from the Holy Mecca – attended by youth in record numbers, is a case in point.

Mapping out the reform is instructive to make an assessment. First, the political landscape. Irrespective of the reform, the form and format of Saudi Government is to remain a monarchy, dominated by the Sudairi clan, maintaining their stranglehold on the state power, through thousands of princes and princelings in pivotal positions, duly supported by expats from almost all nations. Although the internment of prominent clan members during last years, and the strong-arm tactics employed to recover large sums from some of them, under direct orders of MBS, seems to have dented the family solidarity…if the press is to be believed. There seems no visible family challenger to the authority of the King and MBS.

Regionally, the Kingdom is in strong alliance with the UAE, whose equally younger rulers, also seem to rock the traditional boat and change the social and political status quo. MBS’s closeness with the US under a Trump-Kushner combine is no more, as President Biden supports institutional-led approaches in US-Saudi ties. However, with Iran contained in suffocating sanctions, its useful power potential embroiled in Syria, Iraq and Houthi overreach; an Israel on the mend with UAE, Sudan, Bahrain and Oman through ‘Abraham Accords’ and Adnan Khashoggi, human rights remaining the only irritants, popping up now and then…the Kingdom is on a roll. A Middle East minus Israel is almost zero threat perception for the Saudis. Houthis are just a side show with a timeline.

Economically speaking, the oil prices after the Covid-induced economic slump have bounced back. Limited Hajj/Umra revenue is also again in the pipeline, and Covid-19 is mostly contained. Fossil fuel still remains the global lifeline, as green energy is still a far cry. And the Kingdom has plenty of it. So, there seems no severe economic pressure to the Saudi economy other than global inflation and soaring unemployment. And Saudi economic czars hope to address unemployment by embarking on a liberal economic agenda. MBS is impatient in reaching the heights of ‘developments’ that other nations have come through over a much longer period. From revamping the entire construction industry to building newer, eco-friendly and IT-enabled cities to reorienting domestic tourism to relaxing social curbs on female population to introducing the entrapments of modern entertainment like cinemas, pageants, catwalks and music concerts…he is on the go.

As reported…with the school syllabus pruned; an interfaith bonhomie in the air, and local clergy either on board or sidelined; and the ideals of Islamic solidarity pinioned with pragmatism and national interest, the sands are blowing in different direction in Najd and Hijaz. Domestic legislation concerning female emancipation seems a welcome development to harness the potential of very capable Saudi female work force that one had the opportunity to interact with in the Gulf.

Socially and demographically, the Saudi youth bulge is restless and wants more of what other countries have and other people do. Around two-third (77%) Saudis are up to 34 years of age out of a total population of 35.6 million. And the 15-34 years are 36.7% - the largest group. Among them, the penetration of social media and internet make it hard to stifle opinions, contain the ‘vice’ and control the narrative, any longer. Traditionally the Saudi ‘haves’ would visit Lebanon, then UAE and lately Turkey to chill out.

The battle for domination of the Islamic World/Muslim narrative, with Iran as bulwark of opposition and Turkey an erstwhile colonial power, seems to be subsiding with the departure of the US/American power…thankfully. MBS thus far seems to have read the situation correctly.

A student of political sociology knows that too hasty reforms imposed top-down in a conservative society lead to a social breakdown. The younger, educated and savvier cadre of Peoples’ Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) in 1979 issued no decree that violated the Islamic injunctions, yet the Afghan society rose en-masse against them for wanting to change the centuries-old social status quo… and the rest, as they say is history. In conservative societies, evolution rather than revolution is the way to go. Undue haste, and the perception of reform (although well-intentioned) may create opportunities for the nemesis to exploit. But then Afghan and Saudi societies are diametrically different.

The acceptance of reform by the Saudi population leads one to conclude; a) the pro-reform yearning of Saudi youth bulge; b) the acquiescence of the old guard; c) the impotency of clerical and Sudairi opposition and; d) the popularity of the Prince. And when the cited reform is in conformity with the wider world ethos - whose Western idols daze the sands - the route to endearment is clear, despite the occasional hiccups like human rights and Khashoggi.

So instead of huffing and puffing over the reform that the Saudis are more qualified to accept or reject…it is time to wish them well. It takes brave men to break the shackles of a status-quo, so deeply entrenched. Although things are happening that never happened before in the Kingdom, it is time for the vast majority of Saudis to live normal and freer lives domestically, rather than availing the first opportunity to rush for the greener pastures outside the Kingdom.

As far as protecting the Haramain Sharifain from the encroachment of undesired influences is concerned; is not the Vatican an island on the fringes of a thriving Rome? And then the All Powerful has His own ways of dealing with what He considers an overreach and correct it. Long live our Saudi brethren and good luck to you on the road of reinventing many things. Just do not stumble.