Opinion 
 

Opinion

Checkmating China

Though the U.S. and its allies look determined to challenge China’s rapid advancements and ascendancy, yet the geo-strategic environment may not give them much leverage to fulfil their ambitions out of schadenfreude.

By Reema Shaukat | February 2022

Indo Pacific is the new buzzword in strategic circles as many developments are taking place in that context. The area spanning from the eastern shores of Africa and Middle East to Pacific Ocean is gaining focussed attention of the US and its allies ostensibly to check Chinese economic and military influence. To forge ahead this agenda, various such alliances as Quad and AUKUS have also been formed and are primarily aimed at checkmating Chinese overtures and outreach.

The Quad is a security dialogue between the US, Australia, India and Japan. It is a sort of quasi-military alliance, more tilted towards non-military cooperation, however, aspirations for freedom of navigation at sea exhibit militaristic vibes. It is so far not structured like a typical multilateral organisation and it also does not provide for collective defence. Nonetheless, the conduct of joint military exercises named ‘Malabar’ appears to be a show of unity and diplomatic cohesion. The member states have also shown inclination to expand the membership. Australia, the UK and the U.S. have formed a security alliance called AUKUS. It mainly allows for provision of nuclear-powered submarines by the US to Australia, which is one of its kind acts after such facility has only been extended to the UK up to now.

The tussle between the US and China is aggravating while subjecting allies as well as regional countries to a unique dilemma. It is yet another reminiscence of the Cold War era when the countries were in jeopardy to side with eastern or western bloc. While the Cold War was typically militaristic in nature, this time geo-economics tends to be the main thrust. China’s economic clout is unmatched. China’s perseverance and sobriety in handling the international affairs is also unparalleled, which is complimentary to its economic might. How are countries around the world expected to respond to this new geo strategic reality is a million dollar question. However, certain indicators reveal a picture not very sombre for China.

Ever since the Indo Pacific has come to global attention, nation states around the world are rallying their intentions to take part in the new development and become stakeholders. The US, the UK, European nations and the Indo-Pacific countries consider themselves to be genuinely concerned about the situation with most of them claiming to have notions against the China’s phenomenal rise as a global power. Be it in the name of freedom of navigation, upholding of international laws, Chinese economic outreach or be it territorial issues emerging in the Pacific Basin, all are being taken seriously by the countries located even thousands of miles away. After all, it keeps them relevant in international affairs.


In the current strategic milieu, the US is acknowledged for its diplomatic as well as military influence, but it can’t match economic strength of China. In fact, the ASEAN countries are known to be keen about economic matters more than military events. They may, therefore, fear China for its economic advances, but should not be inclined towards any militaristic upheaval in the region. Despite the USA’s leverages, if the regional countries are hauled to a situation where they have to choose between the US and China, it is thus anticipated that they would prefer a neutral path to avoid fuelling the fire.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China has connected many countries economically. Given the Chinese investments and pledges for heavy investments, it has become nom de plume for their economic development. They must be reluctant to give up the idea merely on US promises whose economic sustenance is not that worthy. Also, the BRI has the advantage of being under a unified banner of China vis-a-vis the Indo Pacific, which is a multilateral arrangement and has had a chequered history in the region.

Australia is a key player in the given scenario as it is a member of both Quad and AUKUS. However, despite all differences, Australia and China are increasingly intertwined economically. Australia apparently seems to have limited sway to go loggerheads against China. The Europeans are similarly not in a comfortable position to take China head-on. Their economic dependency on China and the perceived benefits from the BRI are pervasive.

India is one important country in this whole equation which not only shares the region but also is part of both Indo Pacific arrangements. India’s aspirations to be a major role player in the region are not hidden too. For past sometime, the US has incentivised India to form a military bulwark against Chinese influence in the region. However, Indian inferiority has been vividly demonstrated on a number of occasions be it Ladakh’s Galwan valley spat with China, poor handling of pandemic, post pandemic economic downturn or mishandling of internal issues. Also, India has a history of acting as an autonomous player in international relations. It has multifaceted strings attached to it in the form of dependence on Russia for military hardware and has a litany of long-festering, unresolved disputes with all its neighbours with the long-held aspiration to become a big brother in the region. It thus has a very limited space available to comply with the US wishes.

From the new Indo Pacific construct which has evolved arrangements such as Quad and AUKUS, it is evident that the focus of the US has shifted from land to sea in challenging China. Maritime domain or the road component of the BRI is therefore taking precedence, demanding stronger navies of the littorals. It is also worth noting here that despite limitations for playing an effective role in the US Indo Pacific strategy, India can still create nuisance for Pakistan, particularly in maritime arena. The membership in Quad coupled with sea basing rights it has in our region can afford India to maintain permanent presence in south of Gwadar, mandating Pakistan to review its maritime security policy and prepare for imminent challenges at sea.

Notwithstanding the fact that the US and allies are eager to challenge China’s advancements in the earnest, yet the geo-strategic environment may not afford them much leverage to fulfil their ambitions against China. They will, however, continue to vex China and may succeed in at least impeding its rapid strides.

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The writer has interest in international politics and South Asian security dynamics. She is associated with the Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad and can be reached at reema.asim81@gmail.com

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