The Modi government in India is fast losing trust because the South Asian nation has failed to deliver on many fronts.
ByShahrukh Mehboob | February 2021
South Asia is riddled with multiple antagonisms and mutual suspicions. India mistrusts Pakistan and vice versa. When confronted by such a diplomatic snarl, there are, in reality, only two options: either allow the disputes to boil in their cauldrons, or lower the temperature on all of the region’s antagonisms before a cataclysmic explosion occurs. Today’s frozen regional diplomacy must end; far too much of global importance is at stake. India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the US form a rectangle of relationships in South Asia, with India, China, and the US constituting a triangle that not only contains the South Asia region but is also a major theatre in an increasingly global struggle. The emerging geopolitical centrality of the Indian Ocean, through which an ever-increasing share of world trade passes, is a third complicating factor.
India, the region’s dominant actor with more than 1 billion people, is often characterized as a nascent great power and “indispensable partner” of the United States, one that many analysts view as a potential counterweight to China’s growing clout. Since 2004, Washington and New Delhi have been pursuing a “strategic partnership” based on shared values and convergent geopolitical interests. Numerous economic, security and global initiatives, including plans for civilian nuclear cooperation, are underway. The latter initiative — first launched in 2005 and codified in U.S. law in 2008 — reversed three decades of U.S. nonproliferation policy, but has not been implemented to date.
In 2005, the United States and India signed a ten-year defence framework agreement to expand bilateral security cooperation. The two countries now engage in numerous and unprecedented combined military exercises and major U.S. arms sales to India are underway. The value of all bilateral trade tripled from 2004 to 2008 and continues to grow; significant two-way investment also flourishes. The influence of a large, relatively wealthy and geographically dispersed Indian-American community is reflected in Congress’s largest country-specific caucus. More than 100,000 Indian students are attending American universities.
Further U.S. attention on South Asia focuses on ongoing, historically rooted tensions between India and Pakistan. In the interest of regional stability, in particular, as a means of facilitating U.S.-led efforts to stabilize nearby Afghanistan, the United States strongly endorses an existing, but largely moribund India-Pakistan peace initiative and remains concerned about the potential for conflict over Kashmiri sovereignty to cause open hostilities between these two nuclear-armed countries. The United States also seeks to curtail the proliferation of nuclear weapons and missiles in South Asia.
Many U.S. officials, as well as the Pakistan government, aver that regional peace is inextricably linked to a solution of the Kashmir dispute. New Delhi views separatism in occupied Jammu and Kashmir state to be an internal issue or, at most, a bilateral one with Pakistan. It rejects any third party or multilateral engagement. While levels of violence in Kashmir have declined significantly from their 1990s peak, the situation remains fragile, and Islamabad insists that what it calls New Delhi’s “administrative and half-hearted political measures” will not resolve the Kashmiri “struggle for the right to self-determination.”
Many U.S. officials, as well as the Pakistan government, aver that regional peace is inextricably linked to a solution of the Kashmir dispute.
Three full-scale wars — in 1947-1948, 1965 and 1971 — and a constant state of military preparedness on both sides of the mutual border have marked more than six decades of bitter rivalry between India and Pakistan. The acrimonious partition of British India into two successor states in 1947 and the unresolved issue of Kashmir’s sovereignty have been major sources of tension. Both countries have built large defence establishments at significant cost to economic and social development and the bilateral conflict has precluded the development of meaningful regional organizations.
A major factor in U.S. interest in South Asia is the ongoing tension between India and Pakistan, rooted largely in competing for territorial claims and in so-called “cross-border terrorism” in both Kashmir and major Indian cities. In the interest of regional stability, the United States strongly endorses a recently revived India-Pakistan peace initiative and it remains concerned about the potential for India and Pakistan to cause open hostilities between these two nuclear-armed countries. Senior Indian officials continue to press the U.S. government to convince Islamabad to take stronger action against anti-India terrorist groups operating inside Pakistan. The effects of this bilateral conflict are seen to negatively affect U.S.-led efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. Most observers assert that U.S. success in Afghanistan is to a significant degree dependent on improved India-Pakistan relations, the logic being that Pakistan will need to feel more secure vis-à-vis a perceived existential threat on its eastern front to shift its attention and military resources more towards the west. Some in Pakistan believe that by feeding their country’s insecurities, the increasingly warm U.S.-India relationship foments regional instability.
With the US, Modi has had to balance India’s growing relationship, which he regards as a priority, against the need to not unnecessarily upset China. India is seen in Washington as a potential buffer against China, but US ties have not been easy, especially after Trump became president. By the time Modi came to power, the Washington administration was tiring of India’s non-performance on defence issues and of the previous Manmohan Singh government’s failure to develop agreed nuclear power projects. Officials also regard it as unreliable in a crisis. Trump expected India to become a confirmed ally against China, which is not likely to happen. He also expects the US to become India’s major supplier of defence equipment beyond what has been achieved in recent years. Tensions have recently escalated over trade and investment policies and the US is revoking India’s zero-tariff status within the Generalized System of Preferences on $5.6 billion of Indian exports. Overall, Modi’s achievements do not match up to the image he has portrayed, especially in its neighborhood.
Leave a Reply