Region 
 

Region

Path to Peace

Afghanistan cannot be said to be out of the woods yet though it was the outgoing
American president who initiated peace talks with the Taliban.

By Amjad Ali Siyal | December 2020

path-to-peace

When elections in the US were on the horizon, many analysts expressed scepticism that the hard-earned efforts to bring about peace in war-torn Afghanistan may come to an end, particularly if President Trump was out of the White House. During the presidential speeches, there was hardly any debate on Afghan peace process. Nevertheless, a stateā€™s policies are dictated by its national interests rather than the change of guard. Now that the Democratic candidate Joe Biden has won the race, there is every likelihood of the continuity of the process, though it may face temporary hiccups.

During the 2016 presidential campaign, then candidate Donald Trump espoused the policy of ā€˜America Firstā€™. When he was about to kick off his campaign for his second tenure, he initiated the Afghan peace process in order to tell his voters that he had fulfilled his promise to bring back the troops from Afghanistan and that no American soldier would bleed on foreign soil.

Consequently, on 29 February 2020, an agreement, after arduous negotiations between the Taliban and the US, was signed in Doha that paved the way for more complex intra-Afghan negotiations. The US-Taliban agreement contained a timeline for US troopsā€™ withdrawal as well as guarantees from the Taliban for severance of ties with foreign fighters and reduction of violence. Additionally, prisoner swap was to take place between the Taliban and the Kabul administration that would have set in motion intra-Afghan negotiations.

The intra-Afghan negotiations were delayed due to the pandemic and were compounded by the feud between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah. Political commentators expressed concerns that with the change of guard in the White House, the process may end up in a fiasco. Additionally, the spoilers were also likely to hatch more conspiracies.

During the presidential debates, neither of the presidential candidates talked much about the Afghan endgame. Nevertheless, there is every likelihood now that the policy of president-elect Joe Biden will be no different than that of President Trump for many reasons. Firstly, it is in the US interest to pull out the troops as agreed in the Doha agreement. Secondly, owing to the recessionary trend faced by their economy, the US national interests dictate troopsā€™ withdrawal from Afghan soil, since the US has invested more than two trillion dollars and around 2,500 US servicemen have been killed in Afghanistan, yet military options have not produced any solution. Thirdly, these negotiations will also provide a dignified exit to the sole super power. Moreover, it is a rare chance for all the stakeholders to sit together at the table because such a missed opportunity would result in further chaos in the region. Additionally, the successful intra-Afghan negotiations will also help in eliminating the foreign fighters as well as the Islamic State (IS) terrorists. Hence, it is in the interest of all the stakeholders to seize the opportunity.

On the flip side, the US has already suffered a credibility crisis under incumbent president Trump. Any deviation from international agreements will further vitiate the global standing of the US. Since the US is signatory to the Doha agreement, dishonouring the pact will leave a very bad impression about the United States that it is no longer a reliable state when it comes to honouring the agreements it has signed.

The policy of president-elect Joe Biden will be no different than Trumpā€™s vis-Ć -vis Afghanistan.

Therefore, the policy of president-elect Joe Biden will be no different than Trumpā€™s vis-Ć -vis Afghanistan. As the Vice President under the Obama Administration, Joe Biden did not quite favour the Pentagonā€™s demand of deploying 30,000 additional troops, though President Obama acted on the Pentagonā€™s recommendation.

The president-elect has said that he would maintain a small troop presence in Afghanistan to help battle terrorism in the war-ravaged country. He also supports the reduction of troops.ā€I think we need special ops capacity to coordinate with our allies,ā€ he says.

The Afghan National Reconciliation Chief Negotiator Dr Abdullah, at the conclusion of his three-day visit to Pakistan, emphasised, ā€œNobody can say with certainty what would be the impact of the outcome of the elections in the United States, but based on my experience and interactions, the policy will not change that much. Neither Democrats nor Republicans would want to see all the gains or all the sacrifices they have made in Afghanistan in vainā€¦(or) be hurt once again from Afghanistan or because of Afghanistan.ā€

Hence, the troops pullout by May 2021 and the intra-Afghan peace process may face temporary setbacks but the overall policy of President Biden will remain the same. As it is, the role of the United States is very crucial in pushing the Afghan factions.

A successful exit from Afghanistan is also in the interest of the United States. It has not achieved the requisite results through military means for 19 long years. President-elect Biden may also claim that while Republican President Bush initiated the war, it will be concluded by a Democratic President. It will certainly be a historical act for him to end the longest American war.

In order to keep the spoilers at bay, it is incumbent on the stakeholders, particularly the Afghans to display maturity and restraint, continue negotiations at the table and shun violence.

Pakistan is also very crucial to the peace process. It has played a constructive role in bringing the Afghan factions to the table. But it has ā€˜to do moreā€™ as it is in the interest of Pakistan to broker the negotiations as peace in Pakistan cannot be achieved without peace in Afghanistan.

The future of Afghanistan lies in the willingness of stakeholders to exhibit maturity at this stage. After fighting a long war, they are willing to work out a feasible solution that may be acceptable to all. The regional power-brokers such as China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan should encourage Afghan-led and Afghan-owned negotiations in the interest of Afghanistan and the region.

Read More