Cover Story
A New Twist
The cold war is now being played out in the Islamic world
between the Saudi and Iranian camps. It is imperative to have a
deeper view of the underlying dynamics of power politics.
The peace process in the Middle East has taken a new turn with the signing of peace accords between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain. The USA is also around to give its blessings. We have observed emotional outbursts against the action, amidst criticism over the lukewarm reaction of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). The bitterness appears as more profound in Pakistan through TV talk shows, writings and public meetings. No doubt, the news was quite shocking for all those who have been supportive of the Palestine cause and liberation movement. Therefore, the bitter reaction is understandable. Although, expressing emotions is a natural phenomenon, we are living in an international community, therefore grasping the realpolitik is also essential. Today, power politics is the norm, whereas the art lies in how to balance various acts and adjust to the new emerging realties.
The question that agitates the mind is whether this was a sudden move that took us all by surprise? Those who read books, journals and magazines on international affairs must be aware that interstate relations are guided by strategic interests of countries and not only by ideologies. The use of rhetoric may be of some emotional value for the public but may be clearly out of sync with the demands of realpolitik. The peace move had already been predicted in various commentaries in newspapers and journals.
The harsh reality of international politics is that the cold war is now being played in the Islamic world between the Saudi and Iranian camps. Ever since its revolution, Iran is considered a bigger threat than Israel by the Arab world. Therefore, with each passing day, Saudi Arabia has strategically aligned itself with the United States to ward off the increasing influence of Iran. Any political or military move by Iran in the area, directly or through proxies, is considered a strategic threat by the kingdoms and sheikhdoms. Saudi Arabia and all other allied countries consider themselves vulnerable without the support of US military might.
This overdependence of the Saudis and other allied countries has emboldened President Trump to announce a Middle East Peace Policy which is in deviation with Kissinger’s diplomacy initiative which was known as the “Middle East Peace Process”; the objective was to ease the transfer of land for peace. President Trump, in a departure from the earlier policy that continued until 2016, has put a halt to it. Jason Green Blatt, then the US envoy in Israel and Palestine, in July 2019, unfolded the thinking of the Trump administration. He categorically stated that the United States no longer respected the “fiction” of an international consensus on the Israel-Palestine issue. Without mincing any words, he also attacked the UN Security Council Resolution 242, including all the negotiations carried out so far and the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan. He described the Arab demands for a full withdrawal from the occupied territories, as “tired rhetoric designed to prevent progress and bypass direct negotiations” with the claim that such a tendency had hurt rather than helped the chances for real peace in the region.
The new policy revolves around American hegemony, continued US withdrawal and containment of Iran. This has been outsourced to Israel and Saudi Arabia though many experts on the Middle East consider it a fiasco. However, the process of isolating the Palestine issue started long ago during the period of President Jimmy Carter, when Egypt and Jordan preferred to get back their lands over justice by signing treaties with Israel.
Convergence of common interests has brought the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia on the same pitch.
Convergence of common interests has brought the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia on the same pitch. Iran is considered to be harbouring ambitions of becoming a regional hegemon, exporting its ideas across the border. This fear not only haunts the present American administration but also the kingdoms, sheikdoms and Israel. Playing upon this fear and common interests, Israel is trying to evolve a tacit alliance with the Sunni world.
As a part of the same strategy, the Trump administration has unilaterally struck down the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) for arms control and nuclear processing. This was accompanied by renewed pressure of sanctions, cutting off Iran’s oil exports and fresh demands for no interference by the International Atomic Energy Agency, no support for Hamas and other militant organisations like Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis. Demands were also made for no Iran backed forces in any part of Syria; and no threating behaviour towards Israel, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates.
The recent signing of agreements between the UAE, Bahrain and Israel was not a total surprise but a result of conscious efforts with the back channel understanding of Saudi Arabia. It is therefore imperative to have a deeper view of the underlying dynamics of power politics revolving around national interests. The Islamic world is no more a cohesive unit but a divided house. This again reinforces the point that the foreign policy of a country is not merely determined by idealism but by the overriding factor of realism. Exhorting the Arab world to reverse their policy at the present juncture may be quite difficult, if not impossible. The current situation demands that our response must not be based on emotionalism but should be guided by realism which is in sync with our long-standing national interests.
The writer is a former Secretary to the Home and Tribal Affairs Department and a retired IG. He holds a Ph.D in Political Science and currently heads the think tank, Good Governance Forum. He can be reached at aashah7@yahoo.com |
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