A New World Order

By Dr. Qasim Sodhar | June 2020

The Coronavirus pandemic, which shook China initially, has now shaken the whole world. The virus was first reported in Wuhan city of the Hubei province of China in mid-December 2019. Though the world did not pay attention to it at the initial stage and, according to some sources, even China didn’t do so as well, the virus started later appeared in other countries. Ultimately, coronavirus was declared as a ‘pandemic’ by WHO. The way the Chinese government and the people fought the virus is remarkable. The virus was defeated by China by the middle of March 2020 as there were no new cases in China by then.

What were the factors behind China’s success?

Countries like China, where authoritarian orders can be imposed, can make people understand what they should do. China is an economically strong country and it could afford a lockdown and social distancing. Although COVID-19 has affected China’s economy bitterly, but compared to other countries, China’s economy has not been shattered as much as that of other developing and developed countries. The Chinese government took prompt action by imposing a complete lockdown in Wuhan city and also throughout the Hubei province and public awareness was created all through the country. The role of President Xi Jinping is greatly appreciable as he established an inter-departmental joint prevention and control system and continuously been visited Wuhan and the relevant offices in Beijing to investigate matters.

Once the virus emerged in other parts of the world, new discourses and debates emerged. There different conspiracies theories were circulating around the world. This was a kind of Cold War between two powers,. It seemed the former Soviet Union had been replaced by China. Many world-acclaimed scholars including Henry Kissinger were claiming that the current world order was going to be replaced with a new world order in the post-Covid-19 scenario. Most scholars predicted that the power center would shift from the west to the east, and epicenter would be China. Surprisingly, neither the Chinese government nor anybChinese scholars made any such claims. On the contrary, Chinese scholars denied that China was going to replace the West.

An online webinar organized by the College of Liberal Arts at the Shanghai University posed the question to some professors to know how the Chinese scholars thought about the phenomenon. Almost all denied that China was going to play a role as a superpower in the near future. However, there was no consensus among the scholars and thinkers about changing the world order phenomenon.

Joseph S. Nye Jr., a distinguished professor at Harvard University, wrote in an article in Foreign Policy, “How will the coronavirus pandemic reshape geopolitics? Many commentators predict the end of an era of globalization that has prospered under U.S. leadership since 1945. Some see a turning point at which China surpasses the United States as a global power. Certainly, there will be changes, but one should be wary of assuming that big causes have big effects. For example, the 1918-1919 flu pandemic killed more people than World War I, yet the lasting global changes that unfolded over the next two decades were a consequence of the war, not the disease.”

Nye Jr’s analysis seems convincing that viruses have been emerging in different parts of the world like Influenza, Aids, SARS-COV-2, etc, but they never go to changing the world order. WWI changed the world scenario, when Russia, while adopting a socialist ideology, became one of the world major powers in the post-WWI era. WWII ended British supremacy and many countries were decolonized, including India. The Cold war brought an end to the Soviet Union while 9/11 also affected the world order when a new kind of ideological war (Islamic Fundamentalism v/s US liberalism) emerged. Change can occur in the political system of many countries, if not globally, then at least locally.

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Covid-19 has led to a significant fiscal damage to the economy worldwide. This is generating incredible stress in capital markets and prompting forceful rejoinders from central banks. Asset liquidity has seen an avalanche effect, as well as capital shortages, bailouts, and recapitalisation of financial institutions.

According to IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva, economies have legitimately entered a recession worse than the 2009 one. After the initial outbreak, the US announced a $1 trillion stimulus package, the UK government released a £330 billion rescue package of loan guarantees, while Japan pledged a $990 billion stimulus package.

For Pakistan, this situation is alarming. It is in its nature to import foreign goods, but what measures of self-sustenance are in place to overcome a sudden influx of cash through lending or shortages of foreign remittances while the international markets recover from their whirlwind?

Will Pakistan’s industrial infrastructure be enough to sustain the local market and add coinage to the national kitty? What steps are the citizens going to undertake to curb their need for luxuries? Covid-19 has made realism, a grass-roots level approach and self-correctness fashionable again. This should not be a phase and people should maintain this discipline, post-coronavirus.

As the major powers have always remained busy in enhancing their nuclear power, unfortunately, they have not cared about the healthcare system. Now when there is no vaccination available to curb and cure the corona pandemic, the only viable solution to fight the pandemic is ‘care’. In this context, every government has tried to create public awareness on an urgent basis. No government has, however, succeeded in making people stay at home voluntarily and various governments have adopted harsh policies by declaring curfews and emergencies. Imposition of lockdowns is a form of such policies. In some ways, it seems the pandemic is strengthening the state’s control system.

Some scholars see the era of globalization ending. In China, the state has been very strong since 1949 and other authoritarian states like North Korea, Myanmar, etc. have become more powerful. In this background, the political systems in so-called democratic countries of South Asia, like Pakistan and India can also change. Pakistan has experienced military takeovers many times but India, which claimed to be the largest democracy in the world, has been completely changing under Modi.

At this stage it is important for world powers to collaborate in the fight against COVID-19 and move towards establishing a new world order – a mindset that cares for human life rather than finding ways to destroy it.

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