Political Transition
Whether the regime in Damascus can win peace is uncertain. Without reconstruction, the living conditions of the Syrians could deteriorate and leave queston marks about the country’s recovery, perpetuating instability.
The war in Syria has entered its tenth year, yet normalcy is nowhere in sight. The conflict, which began after the Arab Spring, has descended into a perpetual chaos, having different shades of civil war, sectarianism, IS terrorism, geo-political proxy war and, at times, direct confrontation between different states. In this long crisis, the foremost affectees are the harmless people of Syria in general and children in particular. Despite the long ten years of fierce battle, Syria remains politically polarised, socially divisive and its future remains as uncertain as it was years ago.
As the Arab Spring swept across the Middle East and the North African Arab states, the long-suppressed people of Syria courageously came into the streets of Damascus to topple the Assad government. The reluctant Assad resorted to ruthless force against the peaceful protestors and Syria descended into chaos. The scenario gave rise to a civil war. Many top military officials defected from the Syrian regime and joined forces with the civilian protestors and formed the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in order to remove Assad. Owing to the continued use of violent tactics by Assad to silence protestors, mostly Sunni, radical organisations poured into Syria and formed Jabat-ul-Nusra, which is the Al-Qaeda offshoot in Syria. In response, Shia organisations such as Hezbollah came to rescue the Alawite regime. By then, the civil war had morphed into a sectarian war.
When certain states intervened in the jigsaw, it became even more complex. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey supported the Sunni rebel groups; on the other side, Iran and Hezbollah-backed Shia militias contested to counter the Sunni rebel groups. In addition, the Obama administration approved a CIA-backed training programme to support the anti-Assad rebel groups. When the Assad regime attacked the civilian population with chemical weapons, the western countries launched air strikes to weaken the beleaguered Assad. Many times, it was reported, he was ready to give up; however his Russian and Iranian allies bolstered him and he stayed. In the meanwhile, the Islamic State (IS) emerged on the Syrian landscape that turned the tide in President Assad’s favour.
The ferocity of the IS and its occupation of vast territories in Iraq and Syria brought the nefarious terror outfit into the spotlight. Elimination of the IS mattered more for the world than the Assad regime. After the capture of the historical city of Palmyra in September 2015, Russia militarily intervened to help the embattled Syrian government against the militant Islamic State. Thus, Assad got breathing space and launched a campaign against IS with the help of Russia and Iran; on the other hand, the Kurds recaptured territories of IS one after the other. Here it can be assumed that provided the militant Islamic State had not emerged on the scene, al-Assad might have been toppled as he was at the verge of collapse by then.
The anti-IS campaign by the Kurds and the regime forces supported by Iran and Syria helped in recapturing the lost territories from the terrorists. However, the Russian forces under the garb of eliminating the Islamic State, also attacked the rebels. Hence, President Assad regained control over the vast territories and now controls almost 70 per cent of Syria. Currently, the autonomous region in northeast Syria is controlled by Kurds that they call the “Rojava” and the north-western Idlib province is the last bastion that the Syrian government is trying to regain control of; it was created due to a direct confrontation between Turkey and Syria.
Idlib is controlled by rebel forces backed by Turkey and in addition, millions of Syrian refugees are settled there. In the last few months, Syria, backed by Russian airpower, attacked Idlib to regain control, killing hundreds and forced millions of refugees to flee to the Turkish border. This compelled Turkey to respond militarily to the Assad forces. Nonetheless, President Putin and Erdogan reached a ceasefire agreement and further military confrontation was averted, at least for the time being.
Direct Turkish military intervention has many objectives. First, support its proxies based in Idlib. Second, avert the refugee influx towards Turkey as the country is already hosting 3.5 million Syrian refugees. Third, keep a check on the YPG (Young Protection Unit) as they may extend support to hostile insurgent PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party). Four, restrict movement of refugees amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, for security reasons, Turkey proposed a 32 kilometre “Safe Zone” inside the Syrian territory adjacent to thevTurkish border. Turkey subtly demanded a Safe Zone for resettling Syrian refugees residing in Turkey within that safe zone. However, the primary motive of Turkey is to neutralise the threat emanating from the Kurds based in Syria and especially to avert the confluence of PKK and YPG.
In this backdrop, the complexity of the Syrian crisis is far from over. It faces multiple challenges which need to be tackled after the COVID-19 is controlled. Firstly, as President Assad has consolidated power, he must be pressurised by the international community to reach a new social contract which should be accommodative and democratic in spirit and, in case he violates the contract, he should face the consequences. Secondly, the Kurdish autonomous Rojava should be recognised in Syria as it was their long-established demand. This will also help in pacifying the situation. However, they have to reach an agreement with Turkey that they will not be providing any support to anti-Turkish activities and, in case they violate the agreement, Turkey will have the right to defend itself against any threat emanating from the Kurds. Thirdly, the international community, in coordination with the Syrian regime, should take all possible steps for the resettlement and rehabilitation of Syrian refugees along with the establishment of an oversight mechanism under the P5+2 (Turkey and Germany) arrangement. Fourthly, Syria and Israel should negotiate the issue of the Golan Heights in a peaceful manner.
Syrian civilians have paid a heavy price during these terrible ten years. It is the worst humanitarian crisis, according to the UNHCR. Out of a 22 million pre-war Syrian population, 5.6 million are refugees in the neighbouring states and 6.6 million are internally displaced. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says over half a million Syrians have been killed in this power struggle. Since President Assad has consolidated control, it is imperative that the international community should work with the regime for the rehabilitation of Syria and its internally displaced persons and refugees in order to prevent further polarisation and a humanitarian catastrophe along with addressing the legitimate interests of Turkey. It is time that the stakeholders make all possible efforts that are dedicated for the preservation of human rights of Syrian civilians.
The writer is freelance contributor and can be reached at amjadsiyal@hotmail.com, Twitter: @AmjadASiyal |
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