Conflict Dynamics

U.S. President Donald Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan permanently deprives the Palestinians of their land, liberty and dignity.

By General (R) Mirza Aslam Beg | February 2020

Violating the seven decades old UN Resolutions, the Strategic Defence Partners of United States have unitarily imposed Peace Plans on Kashmir and Palestine, establishing dangerous precedence for the Muslim World. In fact, two different conflict zones now have been established with different logic of conflict emerging that would determine the future course of events in the region.

The internal dynamics of the Kashmir freedom movement are strong, now taking it to a boiling point, which cannot be suppressed by force. So far it is peaceful, but will soon turn violent, as brutalities continue unabated. Jehadi groups from within would emerge, joined by the jehadis of the world similar to what happened in Afghanistan during the wars against Soviet and American occupation. Whereas the steps Modi has taken to assimilate occupied Kashmir, cannot be reversed either, thus the conflict would drag-on with more death and destruction taking place. Khalistan Movement would become alive, causing lot of pain to the soft under-belly of over 800,000 Indian troops deployed in IOK. Pakistan’s’ policy of “Not joining others wars” will also be put to test.

The Palestinian Movement’s internal dynamics are weak. Their leadership is divided. The Palestinians appear reconciled with their fate.

Thus a weak and divided Palestinian leadership and half the Arab World supporting Trumps Peace Plan, has emboldened Mr. Trump to impose a solution, “as if the Palestinians have no voice, no rights, trapped in a detention camp. The world does not hear their narrative, nor see their realities.”

Trump’s “Vision for Peace” permanently deprives the Palestinians of their participation in the negotiations and deprives them of their land, liberty and dignity. The deal also approves Israel’s existing annexation of East Jerusalem. All terms and conditions are to be accepted within four years otherwise Israel would plunder more territory. It is the plan worked-out in Israel by Trumps son-in-law and the US Ambassador David Friedman. Everything about the plan is farcical “glubbly accepted by the American President, so quickly for so little.” Palestinians are torn over whom to protest against: “Do we overcome our internal problems with Abbas first or with Israel.”

The serious ramification of the Peace Plan is its “connect with Iran”, after assassination of Maj. General Qasim Solemani, Al-Quds commander, adding a new dimension to Palestinian logic of conflict. Americans never believed Iran could retaliate so boldly, in Iraq against American military bases and could shoot down the American high-tech reconnaissance plane in Afghanistan. Under shock, Israel pleaded with the Americans not to escalate the situation for fear of a war which could cause existential damage to Israel.

The Muslim world is divided. Even the OIC is not prepared to allow Iran to attend the conference, because it does not suit the Saudi masters who also dissuaded Prime Minister Imran Khan not to attend the Kuala Lumpur conference which could create a vibrant and effective platform for the problems of the Muslim world in a more effective manner.

Yet it is a matter of pride that Iran, which has been demonized and brutalized for the last four decades, has been able to maintain its dignity, pride and a powerful fighting spirit to challenge the superpower of the world. The first “punishing blow” of only 22 missiles, against American bases in Iraq causing brain concussion damage to American soldiers hiding deep in concrete bunkers, came as a rude shock to the Americans. In this context imagine the impact of thousands of rockets and missiles raining over Israel. Let’s examine the likely scenario.

A new kind of asymmetric war is lurking over Israel, against which the Israeli army has no defence. It is a threat which combines the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war technique which Israel lost, while in 2015, the Taliban battled for Kunduz in Afghanistan.

Israel was warned well in time about the threat from Hezbollah, but they did not care and suffered a shameful defeat in 2006. They are being warned now about the threat from Iran, and they better care. Therefore, for America and their proxies Israel and India, the choice is very clear, either to pursue the Modi and Trump peace deals or engage with the Kashmiris and Palestinians to evolve honorable solution, acceptable to all concerned.

The writer is the former Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Pakistan. He can be reached at friendscolumn
@hotmail.com

Submit your Blog
Cover Story
Interview
News Buzz

Leave a Reply

Update