Summit Debacle

The situation was extremely embarrassing for Pakistan and, by some accounts, a diplomatic disaster. It is obvious that Khan had failed to take into account the fact that Pakistan’s Arab allies would have serious reservations about the meeting. Khan may also have thought that the Summit would present an opportunity to discuss the deteriorating situation in Kashmir because the Organization of Islamic Countries has so far failed to offer even a modicum of diplomatic support to Pakistan on the Kashmir front.

Unfortunately, however, the Kuala Lumpur fiasco not only laid bare the lack of Pakistan’s diplomatic acumen, but also exposed its inability to draft an independent foreign policy free of outside influence.

If the PM had shown some diplomatic sense, he would have refrained from making a commitment to attend the Summit in the first place. Someone in Pakistani diplomatic circles should have anticipated strong Arab opposition to the event and warned the PM not to become too enthusiastic.

Pulling out of the Summit at the last minute under a flimsy pretext was another blunder that only served to internationally expose Imran Khan’s alleged penchant for U-turns and his inability to chart an independent foreign policy. Pakistan needs huge financial support from the Arabs but Imran Khan also wants to further his own diplomatic agenda. He has now realized that both are not possible simultaneously.

Saudi Arabia may have been concerned that the KL Summit wouldl pave the way for the formation of a new Muslim body for replacing the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), effectively challenging their uncontested leadership of the Muslim world.

Pakistan has always tried to bridge the gap between Iran and its Arab adversaries.

If the Saudis told Imran Khan not to attend the Summit, he should have sent a delegation instead. But he chose not to do it.

Imran Khan’s last minute withdrawal from the Summit drew widespread criticism from the attendees. Pakistan immediately denied that Saudi Arabia has pressured it into skipping the KL Summit, but the damage to the country’s reputation had already been done.

Imran Khan made a commitment in haste, without thinking about its possible consequences. When the Saudis took him to account, he reeled under pressure.

The incumbent PTI government is very keen to portray itself as a neutral state in the Saudi-Iranian rivalry. This is becoming more difficult now owing to the huge Saudi financial leverage over Islamabad. Given the intensity of the highly complicated Middle East politics, Saudi Arabia cannot afford to lose Pakistan to either Turkey or Iran – its two main rivals in the region.

Pakistan has always tried to bridge the gap between Iran and its Arab adversaries. However, the current situation in the Middle East has rendered this task next to impossible. Iran’s involvement in Syria is unacceptable to its Arab neighbours. The conflict has claimed hundreds of thousands of civilian lives and displaced millions.

The Iran nuclear deal penned in July 2015, was another blow to the Arabs. The worst thing about this deal was that it was engineered behind the backs of America’s Arab allies. They believed that the West was planning to patch up with Iran, and use it as a counterweight against regional Arab powers.

Iran’s footprints are visible in many Arab countries. Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq are all under the direct or indirect influence of Iran. The Arabs are certain that Iran is trying to create its hegemony in the region. Its final goal is to become the leader of the entire Muslim nation – a coveted position currently held by Saudi Arabia.

In this context, Riyadh’s fears that the KL Summit will enhance Iran’s prestige, and further its influence among other Muslim nations, was not completely unfounded. Saudis also suspected that Turkey and Malaysia, in connivance with their archrival Iran, were planning to undermine its position, and create a parallel Muslim bloc as a counterweight to the Saudi-dominated OIC. They perceived the KL Summit as an existential threat

While giving in to the Saudi demands, Pakistani diplomats seem to have missed the point that Pakistan also holds immense sway over Saudis. It has a significant military presence in the region. Pakistan’s former army chief is leading the Islamic military alliance headed by Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia needs the support of Pakistan – a declared nuclear power, and a regional powerhouse. Pakistan can use its military prowess as a leverage over its Arab allies. It can opt to increase military ties with Qatar – an Arab outcast - in order to increase its regional martial clout.

The Saudis made a calculation that Imran Khan is financially vulnerable. They decided to act upon it, and pressured him to miss out on an important event. Unfortunately, Imran Khan failed to take a realistic stock of his own strengths. The result was a diplomatic debacle that would haunt the country for years to come.